Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?
NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear


Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.</li>
<li>The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  </li>
<li>The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.
The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  
The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX fell -0.4% as UST Yields rose on back of surprise Canada hike; US swaps now pricing 67% Fed June skips vs 77% before;  China Exports Collapse in May</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% Discount to Cash;  Likely Consolidation in Japan today with Tech weakness; Govt Passes Defense Bill to support Industry profits; SBI HD to start Carbon Trading Exchange</li>
<li>NUGGET. M&amp;A Research (9552) -AI Driven Ways of Doing Old things in helping to solve the critical succession problem plaguing Japan's SMEs</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX fell -0.4% as UST Yields rose on back of surprise Canada hike; US swaps now pricing 67% Fed June skips vs 77% before;  China Exports Collapse in May
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% Discount to Cash;  Likely Consolidation in Japan today with Tech weakness; Govt Passes Defense Bill to support Industry profits; SBI HD to start Carbon Trading Exchange
NUGGET. M&amp;A Research (9552) -AI Driven Ways of Doing Old things in helping to solve the critical succession problem plaguing Japan's SMEs


Ohayo Japan |Canada Hikes-Impacts US ?! NUGGET:M&A Rsrch(9552), AI-Driven Ways of Doing Old Things

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX +1% as Cyclicals rose on Congress Debt Limit Deal; NFP in focus &amp; implication for Fed June pause; Dollar General -20%..US consumer headwinds; Boeing scraps next-gen aircraft.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% Cash; Stronger Yen but expect strong equity open on US rally; Foreigners bought Equities for 9th week; Panasonic sees EV battery Sales at 2.5tril by 2030</li>
<li>NUGGET. The 2nd round of Off-shore wind auctions will conclude at the end of June. This will mark the (re) start of Japan's aggressive push for wind.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX +1% as Cyclicals rose on Congress Debt Limit Deal; NFP in focus &amp; implication for Fed June pause; Dollar General -20%..US consumer headwinds; Boeing scraps next-gen aircraft.
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% Cash; Stronger Yen but expect strong equity open on US rally; Foreigners bought Equities for 9th week; Panasonic sees EV battery Sales at 2.5tril by 2030
NUGGET. The 2nd round of Off-shore wind auctions will conclude at the end of June. This will mark the (re) start of Japan's aggressive push for wind.


Ohayo Japan |RALLY PAUSE ?..Not; Debt Deal Spurs Tech Rebound; NUGGET: JP Off-Shore Wind-Set to BLOW

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. </li>
<li>The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.</li>
<li>Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. 
The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.
Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Japan

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. is a comprehensive heavy machinery maker. The Company manufactures machinery, ships, turbines and engines, prime movers, aircrafts, and machine parts for military and commercial use.  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also researches and develops nuclear power plants.

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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)

Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

Tech Back as US Equities Well Bid; NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; ; Seino HD(9076) - Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA - Sees path to Solid State...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

Peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’...

Arun George

Ohayo Japan |Canada Hikes-Impacts US ?! NUGGET:M&A Rsrch(9552), AI-Driven Ways of Doing Old Things

Canada Surpise Hikes; NKY Futs -0.2% Discount to Cash; Likely Consolidation in Japan; Govt Passes Defense Bill to support Industry profits; SBI HD...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |RALLY PAUSE ?..Not; Debt Deal Spurs Tech Rebound; NUGGET: JP Off-Shore Wind-Set to BLOW

Debt Deal drives SPX higher ahead of NFP. NKY Futs +0.8% Cash; Foreigners bought Equities for 9th week; Panasonic sees EV battery Sales at 2.5tril...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the...

Arun George

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