Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.</li>
<li>Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.</li>
<li>The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.</li>
</ul>


The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.
Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.
The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.


Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIKKEI 225 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Materials.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIKKEI 225 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Materials.


NIKKEI 225 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 rebalance to come in August 2027 based on trading data as of end-September 2026.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 rebalance to come in August 2027 based on trading data as of end-September 2026.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2027: End-Sep 2026 Ranks

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.</li>
<li>Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.</li>
<li>Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.</li>
</ul>


Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.


Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.</li>
<li>Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.</li>
<li>Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.</li>
</ul>


Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.
Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.
Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Japan

MITSUBISHI MATERIALS CORPORATION manufactures and processes non-ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver.  The Company also produces other products such as cement, aluminum cans, silicon, fine chemicals, and electronic materials.  Ube Industries, an affiliate, sells cement products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JP)

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

NIKKEI 225 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION

We analyzed NIKKEI 225's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION, Nippon...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2027: End-Sep 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 33 Potential ADDs and 34 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. It is early in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

NIKKEI 225 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION

We analyzed NIKKEI 225's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION, Nippon...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2027: End-Sep 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 33 Potential ADDs and 34 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. It is early in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

​Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.