Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,503m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,503m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Rakuten.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX new 52W highs on Bank earnings, AI (thx to MSFT), and Resilient Retail print; MSFT prices Copilot at high end; US bank CEOs showing optimism. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Look for continued follow through in Japan equity bid; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak view;   Kishida cabinet reshuffle?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Isuzu(7202) - Big EV Spending but Still looks Cheap at 1x PBR. A 15% FY3/26 ROE as per mid term plan makes this look interesting for LT investors here.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX new 52W highs on Bank earnings, AI (thx to MSFT), and Resilient Retail print; MSFT prices Copilot at high end; US bank CEOs showing optimism. 
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Look for continued follow through in Japan equity bid; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak view;   Kishida cabinet reshuffle?
NUGGET. Isuzu(7202) - Big EV Spending but Still looks Cheap at 1x PBR. A 15% FY3/26 ROE as per mid term plan makes this look interesting for LT investors here.


Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) - EV Outlook Better for Trucks

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US out for Independence Day - not a lot to report; European Stocks gain, and volumes 1/3 of normal;  META to Launch "Thread", to compete with Twitter </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.5; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery costs by 50%; Rakuten to list Securities biz</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Lawson - if management can execute on their MTP, the stock is super cheap. Potential growth, Yield, Take out play ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US out for Independence Day - not a lot to report; European Stocks gain, and volumes 1/3 of normal;  META to Launch "Thread", to compete with Twitter 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.5; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery costs by 50%; Rakuten to list Securities biz
NUGGET.  Lawson - if management can execute on their MTP, the stock is super cheap. Potential growth, Yield, Take out play ?


Ohayo Japan| US Out - Quiet;  "Thread" To Face off Vs "Twitter"; NUGGET: Lawson - Gunning for Growth

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>New HDFC Bank appears to have far better returns and credit metrics that large Asian peers</li>
<li>Pro-Forma amalgamation puts HDFC Bank as 2nd largest bank in Asia Pacific in market cap </li>
<li>Comparably large banks in Asia are concentrated in China, where credit metrics are opaque</li>
</ul>


New HDFC Bank appears to have far better returns and credit metrics that large Asian peers
Pro-Forma amalgamation puts HDFC Bank as 2nd largest bank in Asia Pacific in market cap 
Comparably large banks in Asia are concentrated in China, where credit metrics are opaque


HDFC Bank - Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), IHI (7013 JP), Tokio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) - EV Outlook Better for Trucks

US equities hit new highs on bank and AI optimism; NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Out - Quiet; "Thread" To Face off Vs "Twitter"; NUGGET: Lawson - Gunning for Growth

US out for 4th of July - Global markets quiet; NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery...

Mark Chadwick

HDFC Bank - Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

The merger is now done, and this is more relevant, highlighting now large HDFC Bank is now in Asia Pacific, not only in India.

Daniel Tabbush

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