'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>• BEST &amp; WORST •</div>Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsumura-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8042:1" rel="noopener">Tsumura (4540 JP)</a> and our'Suga Short' recommendation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a>. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/602/original/2020-11-04_06-51-11.png?1604607954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169602"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/603/original/2020-11-06_05-26-57.png?1604608032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169603"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr>DAILY STATS<hr>198 Quarterly Results<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Results Score: 43% Positive / 10% Neutral / 47% Negative</li>
<li>Average Results Score Change: -0.7 points</li>
<li>Average % Change in Revenue: -9.0% Quarter YoY / -7.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%</li>
</ul><hr>109 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 5% Neutral / 49% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 38% Positive / 7% Neutral / 55% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.8 points</li>
</ul>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS198 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 43% Positive / 10% Neutral / 47% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.0% Quarter YoY / -7.0% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%
109 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 5% Neutral / 49% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 38% Positive / 7% Neutral / 55% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/891/original/2020-10-01_13-26-50.png?1601526452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162891"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics</div>
SHORT TENURE - Since 1979 the average prime ministerial tenure in Japan has been 750 days. Excluding the three longest-serving Prime Ministers of the last forty years - Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2 - the average is 494 days. The equity market has favoured long-serving Liberal Democratic Party government (marked in light green above) and disliked periods of coalition or opposition (野党 yatō) government and also tenures of less than eighteen months.
PM SUGA - Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide succeeded former Prime Minister Abe on 16th September the latter having stepped down for health reasons. Suga had served as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan) for all of Abe's premiership. The continuity offered by Suga's elevation provides Japan with the prospect of an extended period of political stability. From his policy statements made during the brief prime-ministerial election campaign, Suga has bold aims for challenging Japan's economic and social ills. Given his previous role and mastery of the balance between political necessities and bureaucratic realities, the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy and stock market.
<hr>
In the DETAIL below, we shall cover the following topics:-
I: SUGA's BACKGROUND &amp; POLITICAL CAREER
II: POLICY PRIORITIES
Defence &amp; Foreign Policy
Economic Policy
Administrative Reform
The Digital Agency
Telecommunications Services
Birth-rate and Fertility Treatment
Regional Revitalisation &amp; Regional Bank Reform
SME restructuring
Carbon Neutrality &amp; A Nuclear Renaissance
III: SUGA STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
<hr>
WHAT'S ORIGINAL? - This Insight reviews the implications of PM Suga's policy platform for specific sectors and stocks in the Japanse equity market and concludes with five long and five short recommendations for large-cap growth and value-orientated portfolios.  
<hr>
<blockquote class="">
"Self-help, mutual help, public help, and "kizuna" (bonds) is our vision for society. With that in mind, we firmly believe, overcoming various issues, such as regional revitalization and the shrinking population, as well as the declining birth-rate and aging society, will create dynamism in Japan. To this end, we will meet the people's expectations by giving birth to a "Cabinet that works for the People," which gives its all to advance regulatory reforms without being constrained by the vested interests of the stakeholders, tearing down bureaucratic sectionalism and the notorious habit of following past precedents.
<h3>Statement of the Prime Minister</h3>
September 16th, 2020
</blockquote>


Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics
SHORT TENURE - Since 1979 the average prime ministerial tenure in Japan has been 750 days. Excluding the three longest-serving Prime Ministers of the last forty years - Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2 - the average is 494 days. The equity market has favoured long-serving Liberal Democratic Party government (marked in light green above) and disliked periods of coalition or opposition (野党 yatō) government and also tenures of less than eighteen months.
PM SUGA - Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide succeeded former Prime Minister Abe on 16th September the latter having stepped down for health reasons. Suga had served as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan) for all of Abe's premiership. The continuity offered by Suga's elevation provides Japan with the prospect of an extended period of political stability. From his policy statements made during the brief prime-ministerial election campaign, Suga has bold aims for challenging Japan's economic and social ills. Given his previous role and mastery of the balance between political necessities and bureaucratic realities, the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy and stock market.

In the DETAIL below, we shall cover the following topics:-
I: SUGA's BACKGROUND &amp; POLITICAL CAREER
II: POLICY PRIORITIES
Defence &amp; Foreign Policy
Economic Policy
Administrative Reform
The Digital Agency
Telecommunications Services
Birth-rate and Fertility Treatment
Regional Revitalisation &amp; Regional Bank Reform
SME restructuring
Carbon Neutrality &amp; A Nuclear Renaissance
III: SUGA STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS

WHAT'S ORIGINAL? - This Insight reviews the implications of PM Suga's policy platform for specific sectors and stocks in the Japanse equity market and concludes with five long and five short recommendations for large-cap growth and value-orientated portfolios.  


"Self-help, mutual help, public help, and "kizuna" (bonds) is our vision for society. With that in mind, we firmly believe, overcoming various issues, such as regional revitalization and the shrinking population, as well as the declining birth-rate and aging society, will create dynamism in Japan. To this end, we will meet the people's expectations by giving birth to a "Cabinet that works for the People," which gives its all to advance regulatory reforms without being constrained by the vested interests of the stakeholders, tearing down bureaucratic sectionalism and the notorious habit of following past precedents.
Statement of the Prime Minister
September 16th, 2020


🇯🇵 Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities & 'Suga Stocks'

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nippon Building Fund / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$1.2bn (JPY127bn) in order to part fund its purchase of two assets.This will be one of the largest JREIT placement that we have seen over the past few years. In addition, the stock hasn't been doing too well this year.In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) aims to raise around US$1.2bn (JPY127bn) in order to part fund its purchase of two assets.This will be one of the largest JREIT placement that we have seen over the past few years. In addition, the stock hasn't been doing too well this year.In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Nippon Building Fund Placement - Needs to Correct Some More Given the Weak Sentiment

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24027" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24027:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Inc (3471 JP)</a> (MFLP) is looking to raise about US$450m to partially fund the acquisition of two new assets. </div><div>This will be the second fund raising by the company this year. We covered the earlier deal in Jan 2020 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitsui-fudosan-logistics-park-placement-less-dilutive-and-more-accretive-than-the-previous-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement - Less Dilutive and More Accretive than the Previous Deal</a>. We also covered the prior Jan 2019 raising in, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitsui-fudosan-logistics-park-placement-accretive-and-well-flagged" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement - Accretive and Well-Flagged</a>.</div>

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Inc (3471 JP) (MFLP) is looking to raise about US$450m to partially fund the acquisition of two new assets. This will be the second fund raising by the company this year. We covered the earlier deal in Jan 2020 in Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement - Less Dilutive and More Accretive than the Previous Deal. We also covered the prior Jan 2019 raising in, Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement - Accretive and Well-Flagged.

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement - Large Deal but Minimal Accretion

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Forensic Accounting

Zoomlion Heavy Industry H / Forensic Accounting

This is a follow-on insight from our original insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-forensic-analysis-tool-for-detecting-accounting-red-flags-focus-on-developed-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36832" rel="noopener">A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia</a>. This insight aims to provide updated results flagged by our model per the most recent updated financial data for the companies in our Developed Asia universe. Given that most companies have now reported CY19 or FY20 data, our model has taken this updated data and flagged updated set of the companies carrying high accounting risk. Per the updated results, our model has downgraded three new companies to the high risk category and upgraded four companies from high risk earlier to medium to no risk category now.
We have also made some minor enhancements to the model relating to 1) more robust handling of negative data points for interest rates and EBITDA, and 2) more robust calculations for Cash Flow from Operations (adjustments for any interest payments classified within operating activity per Cap IQ classification) and Pension &amp; Other Retirement Liabilities (alternate data using Debt Equivalent of Net PBO, where the base data is not available). These enhancements have also partly affected the updated results.

This is a follow-on insight from our original insight A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia. This insight aims to provide updated results flagged by our model per the most recent updated financial data for the companies in our Developed Asia universe. Given that most companies have now reported CY19 or FY20 data, our model has taken this updated data and flagged updated set of the companies carrying high accounting risk. Per the updated results, our model has downgraded three new companies to the high risk category and upgraded four companies from high risk earlier to medium to no risk category now.
We have also made some minor enhancements to the model relating to 1) more robust handling of negative data points for interest rates and EBITDA, and 2) more robust calculations for Cash Flow from Operations (adjustments for any interest payments classified within operating activity per Cap IQ classification) and Pension &amp; Other Retirement Liabilities (alternate data using Debt Equivalent of Net PBO, where the base data is not available). These enhancements have also partly affected the updated results.

Forensic Accounting | High Risk Companies in Developed Asia - Update 1.0

Japan

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. provides overall real estate services such as leasing, subdivision, construction, sales, and maintenance of office buildings and residential houses.  The Company also manufactures building materials, operates commercial facilities including hotels and golf places, and provides financial services such as securitization of real estate properties.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities & 'Suga Stocks'

We believe the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy...

Campbell Gunn

Nippon Building Fund Placement - Needs to Correct Some More Given the Weak Sentiment

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) aims to raise over US$1.2bn in order to part fund its purchase of two office assets in Tokyo

Sumeet Singh

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement - Large Deal but Minimal Accretion

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Inc (3471 JP) (MFLP) is looking to raise about US$250m to partially fund the acquisition of two new assets and...

Sumeet Singh

Forensic Accounting | High Risk Companies in Developed Asia - Update 1.0

This is a follow-on insight from our original insight A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia. This...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities & 'Suga Stocks'

We believe the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy...

Campbell Gunn

Nippon Building Fund Placement - Needs to Correct Some More Given the Weak Sentiment

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) aims to raise over US$1.2bn in order to part fund its purchase of two office assets in Tokyo

Sumeet Singh

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement - Large Deal but Minimal Accretion

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Inc (3471 JP) (MFLP) is looking to raise about US$250m to partially fund the acquisition of two new assets and...

Sumeet Singh

Forensic Accounting | High Risk Companies in Developed Asia - Update 1.0

This is a follow-on insight from our original insight A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia. This...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE