Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Rakuten Bank priced its IPO low and then immediately bounced. Earnings came in as forecast, and the forecast next year did too. Highish PBR, high ROE, not-so-high-PER on low ROA.</li>
<li>The stock fell on 16 May after Rakuten Bank announced its capital raising. That was probably a knee-jerk reaction, and had no reason. </li>
<li>Next week sees the TOPIX inclusion. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.</li>
</ul>


Rakuten Bank priced its IPO low and then immediately bounced. Earnings came in as forecast, and the forecast next year did too. Highish PBR, high ROE, not-so-high-PER on low ROA.
The stock fell on 16 May after Rakuten Bank announced its capital raising. That was probably a knee-jerk reaction, and had no reason. 
Next week sees the TOPIX inclusion. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.


Rakuten Bank - Big TOPIX Inclusion Next Week

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>, the online banking arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, aims to raise up to around US$630m in its Japan listing in April 2023.</li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations in the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$630m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations in the IPO price range.


Rakuten Bank IPO - Lower Range Makes It Even More Attractive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. </li>
<li>The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.</li>
<li>Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.</li>
</ul>


Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. 
The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.
Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.


Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Sumishin Net Bank  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is not a typo: SBI Sumishin Net Bank saw loans up 21% YoY in 1Q24, operating in Japan</li>
<li>The bank has achieved cost scale, with acquisition cost per account a fraction of 2 yrs ago</li>
<li>Credit quality remains exceptional, amongst best in Japan, with 0.06% NPL ratio in 1Q24</li>
</ul>


This is not a typo: SBI Sumishin Net Bank saw loans up 21% YoY in 1Q24, operating in Japan
The bank has achieved cost scale, with acquisition cost per account a fraction of 2 yrs ago
Credit quality remains exceptional, amongst best in Japan, with 0.06% NPL ratio in 1Q24


SBI Sumishin Net Bank - Dramatic ROA Expansion, Steady & Strong, Profit & Loan Growth, ROE at 19%

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Rakuten Bank - Big TOPIX Inclusion Next Week

Rakuten Bank IPOed too low. Then it reported earnings and growth. The stock is a bit higher PER than large cap peers, and a lot higher PBR, but it...

Travis Lundy

Rakuten Bank IPO - Lower Range Makes It Even More Attractive

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$630m in its Japan listing in April 2023.

Sumeet Singh

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Sumishin Net Bank - Dramatic ROA Expansion, Steady & Strong, Profit & Loan Growth, ROE at 19%

9.6% move upward today is sizeable even with recent volatility. We continue to like this bank in Japan, which tends to have better financial...

Daniel Tabbush

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