Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global macro hurdles following “liberation day” have hit Japanese banks’ share prices hard; global recession risks are on the rise and BoJ monetary policy normalization is at best delayed</li>
<li>With investors betting on the safe haven of Japanese government bonds, the JGB yield curve has flattened since March-end which adds to the Japanese banks’ hurdles</li>
<li>Despite maintaining our constructive medium to long term view on Japanese banks, we expect challenges in the near-term and we would reduce long exposures to Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Shizuoka</li>
</ul>


Global macro hurdles following “liberation day” have hit Japanese banks’ share prices hard; global recession risks are on the rise and BoJ monetary policy normalization is at best delayed
With investors betting on the safe haven of Japanese government bonds, the JGB yield curve has flattened since March-end which adds to the Japanese banks’ hurdles
Despite maintaining our constructive medium to long term view on Japanese banks, we expect challenges in the near-term and we would reduce long exposures to Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Shizuoka


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.</li>
<li>This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.</li>
<li>Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.</li>
</ul>


Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2:  Trading Opportunities.

<ul>
<li>Revisiting a sector we have liked for the last 2 years</li>
<li>We discuss current sector dynamics and why they could be  a potential short</li>
<li>Recent positive earning surprises from the banks have not moved the stocks</li>
</ul>


Revisiting a sector we have liked for the last 2 years
We discuss current sector dynamics and why they could be  a potential short
Recent positive earning surprises from the banks have not moved the stocks


Japanese Megabanks – Time to Get Short?

<ul>
<li>Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.</li>
<li>The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024</li>
<li>We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates</li>
</ul>


Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.
The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024
We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates


Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years </li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%</li>
<li>MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales</li>
</ul>


Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years 
Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%
MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales


Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Price Gauge
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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds

Trade war means rising recession risks, delayed BoJ rate hike and flatter JGB yield curve; despite the banks' positive long-term outlook, reduce...

Victor Galliano

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Japanese Megabanks – Time to Get Short?

From a short-term trading perspective, we would look to cover half our shorts in the sector today as the stocks approach the 200-day Moving...

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds

Trade war means rising recession risks, delayed BoJ rate hike and flatter JGB yield curve; despite the banks' positive long-term outlook, reduce...

Victor Galliano

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

​US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Japanese Megabanks – Time to Get Short?

From a short-term trading perspective, we would look to cover half our shorts in the sector today as the stocks approach the 200-day Moving...

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...