IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a> at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.</li>
<li>Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  </li>
</ul>


On 17 June, Capitol Health (CAJ AU) disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. 
The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  


Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monash-ivf-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18130:1" rel="noopener">Monash Ivf (MVF AU)</a> delivered a strong result in H1FY24, with revenue growth of 22% YoY to A$126M and underlying NPAT growth of 19% YoY to A$15M.</li>
<li>The company has guided for FY24 underlying NPAT of A$29–30M compared to A$25.5M in the prior comparative period (excluding contribution from the Fertility North acquisition).</li>
<li>Secular industry tailwinds, consistent market share gain, and strong new patient registrations provide a sustainable growth trajectory for Monash IVF.  </li>
</ul>



Monash Ivf (MVF AU) delivered a strong result in H1FY24, with revenue growth of 22% YoY to A$126M and underlying NPAT growth of 19% YoY to A$15M.
The company has guided for FY24 underlying NPAT of A$29–30M compared to A$25.5M in the prior comparative period (excluding contribution from the Fertility North acquisition).
Secular industry tailwinds, consistent market share gain, and strong new patient registrations provide a sustainable growth trajectory for Monash IVF.  


Monash IVF (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds + Strong Market Positioning = Multi-Year Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX</a> and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>The largest impact is expected on the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.</li>
<li>There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.
The largest impact is expected on the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.
There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

<ul>
<li>With two days left in the review period, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>There is nearly A$1bn to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.</li>
<li>There could be 2-41 days of ADV to buy in the index inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.7-24 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With two days left in the review period, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
There is nearly A$1bn to sell in Newmont (NEM AU) due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.
There could be 2-41 days of ADV to buy in the index inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.7-24 days of ADV.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell

Australia

Monash IVF Group Ltd. is a fertility research and treatment center. The Company researches and develops reproduction supportive medications.

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Monash IVF (MVF AU)

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.

Arun George

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds + Strong Market Positioning = Multi-Year Growth

Monash IVF reports strong H1FY24 result with revenue and EBITDA growing 20%+. Company expects FY24 NPAT growth of 18%, driven by industry...

Tina Banerjee

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There are 38 constituent changes across the index family. There are big flows and impacts for a bunch of stocks. Short interest is high on the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell

There could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in March. Newmont will have around A$1bn to sell. Shorts have been soaring on...

Brian Freitas

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Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.

Arun George

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds + Strong Market Positioning = Multi-Year Growth

​Monash IVF reports strong H1FY24 result with revenue and EBITDA growing 20%+. Company expects FY24 NPAT growth of 18%, driven by industry...

Tina Banerjee

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There are 38 constituent changes across the index family. There are big flows and impacts for a bunch of stocks. Short interest is high on the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell

There could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in March. Newmont will have around A$1bn to sell. Shorts have been soaring on...

Brian Freitas

Monash IVF reports strong H1FY24 result with revenue and EBITDA growing 20%+. Company expects FY24 NPAT growth of 18%, driven by industry...

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell