Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/wK6xN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed</a>, I discussed Maynilad's upcoming IPO, a company controlled by MPIC, which in turn, is controlled by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Since that note, I have tracked down Maynilad's elusive prospectus.</li>
<li>This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday's note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh insight as opposed to a boomerang.</li>
</ul>


In First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed, I discussed Maynilad's upcoming IPO, a company controlled by MPIC, which in turn, is controlled by First Pacific Co (142 HK).
Since that note, I have tracked down Maynilad's elusive prospectus.
This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday's note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh insight as opposed to a boomerang.


First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO (Now With Prospectus Numbers)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>'s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.</li>
<li>The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. </li>
<li>First Pac's NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.
The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. 
First Pac's NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.


First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM)</a> shares are down 18% on the back of FY22 results which revealed a net loss of PHP13 billion mainly due to a large impairment charge.</li>
<li>While softening demand in meat alternatives is a headwind, Monde should benefit from the tailwinds of market share gains (in APAC BFB) and margin improvement (easing cost inflation).</li>
<li>The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21 per share) and will prove attractive to investors with a longer-term investment horizon.</li>
</ul>



Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM) shares are down 18% on the back of FY22 results which revealed a net loss of PHP13 billion mainly due to a large impairment charge.
While softening demand in meat alternatives is a headwind, Monde should benefit from the tailwinds of market share gains (in APAC BFB) and margin improvement (easing cost inflation).
The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21 per share) and will prove attractive to investors with a longer-term investment horizon.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week, Filipino food manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM)</a> announced FY22 top-line growth of 6.7%. </li>
<li>However, the bottom line spilled red ink after booking impairment losses relating to its Quorn meat alternative ops. </li>
<li>The thrust of Quorn/Impossible/Beyond alternatives was that meat eaters would sacrifice their burgers without having to sacrifice anything at all. Yet the Big Meat appetite is not so easily swayed. </li>
</ul>


Last week, Filipino food manufacturer Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM) announced FY22 top-line growth of 6.7%. 
However, the bottom line spilled red ink after booking impairment losses relating to its Quorn meat alternative ops. 
The thrust of Quorn/Impossible/Beyond alternatives was that meat eaters would sacrifice their burgers without having to sacrifice anything at all. Yet the Big Meat appetite is not so easily swayed. 


Monde Nissin: High Steaks And Flexitarian Impairments

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmci-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8026:1" rel="noopener">DMCI Holdings (DMC)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unionbank-of-the-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23192:1" rel="noopener">UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/megaworld-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8746:1" rel="noopener">Megaworld Corp (MEG)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinsons-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8831:1" rel="noopener">Robinsons Land Co (RLC)</a> at the close on 3 February.</li>
<li>The PSE is using float higher than 20% for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-miguel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1" rel="noopener">San Miguel (SMC PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMP PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ac-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23188:1" rel="noopener">AC Energy Corp (ACEN)</a> - there will be passive buying on the stocks.</li>
<li>Historically, the inclusions have outperformed the exclusions and there has been a big move in the stocks the day after announcement. Square off existing pre-positions by mid-week.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, DMCI Holdings (DMC) and UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP) will replace Megaworld Corp (MEG) and Robinsons Land Co (RLC) at the close on 3 February.
The PSE is using float higher than 20% for San Miguel (SMC PM), Emperador (EMP PM) and AC Energy Corp (ACEN) - there will be passive buying on the stocks.
Historically, the inclusions have outperformed the exclusions and there has been a big move in the stocks the day after announcement. Square off existing pre-positions by mid-week.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: DMC, UBP to Replace MEG, RLC

Philippines

Monde Nissin is a Philippine multinational food and beverage company that manufactures and distributes a wide array of products, including instant noodles, biscuits, baked goods, culinary aids, and alternative meat products. Its portfolio includes popular brands such as Lucky Me!, SkyFlakes, and Quorn. The company is headquartered in Santa Rosa, Laguna, Philippines, and was founded in 1979.

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Monde Nissin (MONDE PM)

First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO (Now With Prospectus Numbers)

This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday's note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh...

David Blennerhassett

First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed

First Pac's NAV discount is elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco. Maynilad's IPO was priced below expectations. Plus the...

David Blennerhassett

Monde Nissin: The Investment Case

The sentiment is weak due to the large impairment charges. The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21) and will prove attractive to...

Arun George

Monde Nissin: High Steaks And Flexitarian Impairments

Monde is not "cheap". And Universal and Century have stronger forward top-line growth and superior yields. I can see Mode drifting lower to sideways.

David Blennerhassett

PCOMP Index Rebalance: DMC, UBP to Replace MEG, RLC

As forecast, DMC & UBP will replace MEG & RLC in the PCOMP at the close on 3 February. There are only 5 days to implementation and there is a large...

Brian Freitas

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