Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200715E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it would delete <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> from a few of its indices and in the case of the Nikkei 225, would replace it with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a>. Changes will be made so that the calculation changes as of the opening price of 29 July, meaning the inclusion event takes place at the close of trading on 28 July. This is a new way of dealing with Securities which will likely be delisted, following the <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200615E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> of a slight change in policy made on 15 June, titled Changes to the Constituents Selection Rules of the Nikkei Stock Average which followed a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200511E_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">consultation</a> starting in early May.This was not that much of a surprise. There were several "top picks" out there, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a>, the Japan Post names not in already, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>. The fact that there were so many top picks indicates three things at the outset.<ol>
<li>Not everyone is in the successful inclusion,</li>
<li>People are in names which were not successful inclusions and will want to exit,</li>
<li>The Nikkei has rules or habits which are vague enough to be considered unreliable. That creates for more surprise when inclusions come, but it also creates for unreliable index construction, which remains a problem. </li>
</ol>However, Japan Exchange Group saw a decent run on excess volume, perhaps partially helped by rising forward Street consensus EBIT. The trade is partially "done" already.The details of the inclusion and exclusion trades, flows, etc are, of course, below.

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc announced that it would delete Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) from a few of its indices and in the case of the Nikkei 225, would replace it with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP). Changes will be made so that the calculation changes as of the opening price of 29 July, meaning the inclusion event takes place at the close of trading on 28 July. This is a new way of dealing with Securities which will likely be delisted, following the announcement of a slight change in policy made on 15 June, titled Changes to the Constituents Selection Rules of the Nikkei Stock Average which followed a consultation starting in early May.This was not that much of a surprise. There were several "top picks" out there, including Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP), the Japan Post names not in already, Orix Corp (8591 JP), Sbi Holdings (8473 JP) and Monex Group Inc (8698 JP). The fact that there were so many top picks indicates three things at the outset.
Not everyone is in the successful inclusion,
People are in names which were not successful inclusions and will want to exit,
The Nikkei has rules or habits which are vague enough to be considered unreliable. That creates for more surprise when inclusions come, but it also creates for unreliable index construction, which remains a problem. 
However, Japan Exchange Group saw a decent run on excess volume, perhaps partially helped by rising forward Street consensus EBIT. The trade is partially "done" already.The details of the inclusion and exclusion trades, flows, etc are, of course, below.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">
Both Bitcoin and gold prices are rallying this year and this is probably a sign of a HEDGE against political instability in China, in our view. Bitcoin and gold are two of the best-performing assets this year, with many stock markets around the world hammered by the concerns from the Wuhan virus. 
</div>
The following were the main headlines impacting the blockchain and cryptocurrencies sectors in South Korea, Japan, and globally in the past few weeks. 
<ul>
<li>BITCOIN PRICE RALLY IN 2020</li>
<li>SOUTH KOREA (TAXES ON CRYPTOS) </li>
<li>CME GROUP</li>
<li>XRP DELISTED FROM JAPAN'S BITBOX </li>
<li>FIRST SWISS COMPLIANT DIGITAL IPO </li>
<li>SAUDI ARAMCO INVESTS IN VAKT </li>
<li>NOMURA RESEARCH INSTITUTE (NRI) LAUNCHES A NEW CRYPTOCURRENCY INDEX </li>
<li>FORMATION OF NATIONAL DIGITAL CURRENCIES IN 2020</li>
<li>
BITCOIN BLOCK REWARD HALVING
</li>
<li>
EXPERTISE IN BLOCKCHAIN
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
GMO INTERNET
</li>
<li>
TOYOTA LEASING (THAILAND)
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>SQUARE CRYPTO</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
BITCOIN DOMINANCE
</li>
</ul>


Both Bitcoin and gold prices are rallying this year and this is probably a sign of a HEDGE against political instability in China, in our view. Bitcoin and gold are two of the best-performing assets this year, with many stock markets around the world hammered by the concerns from the Wuhan virus. 

The following were the main headlines impacting the blockchain and cryptocurrencies sectors in South Korea, Japan, and globally in the past few weeks. 

BITCOIN PRICE RALLY IN 2020
SOUTH KOREA (TAXES ON CRYPTOS) 
CME GROUP
XRP DELISTED FROM JAPAN'S BITBOX 
FIRST SWISS COMPLIANT DIGITAL IPO 
SAUDI ARAMCO INVESTS IN VAKT 
NOMURA RESEARCH INSTITUTE (NRI) LAUNCHES A NEW CRYPTOCURRENCY INDEX 
FORMATION OF NATIONAL DIGITAL CURRENCIES IN 2020

BITCOIN BLOCK REWARD HALVING


EXPERTISE IN BLOCKCHAIN




GMO INTERNET


TOYOTA LEASING (THAILAND)



SQUARE CRYPTO



BITCOIN DOMINANCE



This Month in Blockchain & Cryptos: Bitcoin Price Rally in 2020, OverFuture's Digital IPO, & Vakt

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/205/original/2019-11-03_13-09-55.png?1572754223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104205"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>FIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/206/original/2019-11-03_13-33-51.png?1572755646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104206"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/207/original/2019-11-03_13-44-57.png?1572756308" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104207"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>CALLING A BOTTOM? - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the DETAIL section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.Among the stocks mentioned below are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autobacs-seven-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2142:1" rel="noopener">Autobacs Seven (9832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-tec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17697:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m-a-capital-partners-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10401:1" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP)</a>.

Source: Japan AnalyticsFIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. 
Source: Japan Analytics
CALLING A BOTTOM? - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the DETAIL section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.Among the stocks mentioned below are Autobacs Seven (9832 JP), Nomura Holdings (8604 JP), Monex (8698 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Fujitsu (6702 JP), Toshiba Tec (6588 JP), and M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP). 

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Roundup Part 1 - Mr Market Calls a Bottom

The past few days have been monumental in the short history of blockchain as China's president Xi Jinping stated that the country should<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-surges-to-over-10000-in-biggest-single-day-move-since-april-2019-10-26" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> "seize the opportunity of blockchain technology." </a>This was essentially the first time that Xi has praised the merits of the blockchain technology, which resulted in the Bitcoin price exploding higher.
Although the exact timing of the launch of the China government-backed cryptocurrency is not yet known, it could be launched as soon as this winter. It remains to be seen how the Chinese government will seek to regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as its own Chinese government driven cryptocurrency. However, we believe that one of the ways that the Chinese government could encourage the use of its own cryptocurrency is through various incentives schemes, including through the  "social credit scores."
Bitcoin price surged by 35% from October 24th to 26th and has since retraced slightly. As of October 28th, the Bitcoin price is $9,663 which is nearly 30% higher than October 24th just prior to Xi's embrace of the blockchain technology.

The past few days have been monumental in the short history of blockchain as China's president Xi Jinping stated that the country should "seize the opportunity of blockchain technology." This was essentially the first time that Xi has praised the merits of the blockchain technology, which resulted in the Bitcoin price exploding higher.
Although the exact timing of the launch of the China government-backed cryptocurrency is not yet known, it could be launched as soon as this winter. It remains to be seen how the Chinese government will seek to regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as its own Chinese government driven cryptocurrency. However, we believe that one of the ways that the Chinese government could encourage the use of its own cryptocurrency is through various incentives schemes, including through the  "social credit scores."
Bitcoin price surged by 35% from October 24th to 26th and has since retraced slightly. As of October 28th, the Bitcoin price is $9,663 which is nearly 30% higher than October 24th just prior to Xi's embrace of the blockchain technology.  

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Xi Jinping Embraces Blockchain & Bitcoin Price Surges Higher

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

1Q FY3/2020 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shizuoka-bank-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4437:1">Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP)</a>, one of Japan’s largest regional banks, were underwhelming.  However, a weaker first half had been hinted at by management in the bank’s FY3/2020 profit guidance issued in May this year so, while disappointing, the weak start to the year should not have been an entirely unexpected event for the market.Consolidated net profits fell 41.5% YoY to ¥8.44 billion (compared to ¥14.43 billion in 1Q FY3/2019).  Key factors behind the disappointing results were lower net interest and fee income, lower trading profits, and substantially higher credit costs (25bps versus 12bps in 1Q FY3/2019).  Weaker trading results from 25.6%-owned online brokerage <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> also weighed on consolidated profits.  While commercial and retail bank lending grew by 4.4% YoY, this was not enough to offset the YoY decline in net interest margin from 100bps to 96bps.Foreigners own in aggregate around 17.1% of outstanding shares.  The stock is down 22.7% YoY, and down 12.2% in the last 6 months.  While this curiously represents one of the better share price performances among the regional banks this year, we expect further share price weakness in the short-term in reaction by the market to the bank’s 1Q FY3/2020 results.

1Q FY3/2020 results from Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP), one of Japan’s largest regional banks, were underwhelming.  However, a weaker first half had been hinted at by management in the bank’s FY3/2020 profit guidance issued in May this year so, while disappointing, the weak start to the year should not have been an entirely unexpected event for the market.Consolidated net profits fell 41.5% YoY to ¥8.44 billion (compared to ¥14.43 billion in 1Q FY3/2019).  Key factors behind the disappointing results were lower net interest and fee income, lower trading profits, and substantially higher credit costs (25bps versus 12bps in 1Q FY3/2019).  Weaker trading results from 25.6%-owned online brokerage Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) also weighed on consolidated profits.  While commercial and retail bank lending grew by 4.4% YoY, this was not enough to offset the YoY decline in net interest margin from 100bps to 96bps.Foreigners own in aggregate around 17.1% of outstanding shares.  The stock is down 22.7% YoY, and down 12.2% in the last 6 months.  While this curiously represents one of the better share price performances among the regional banks this year, we expect further share price weakness in the short-term in reaction by the market to the bank’s 1Q FY3/2020 results.

Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP) - Underwhelming but Not Unexpected  (1Q FY3/2020 Results)

Japan

Monex Group, Inc. is a holding company, which was established through merger between Monex and Nikko Beans. The Company manages its subsidiaries that provides investing services for self-directed investors through Internet and telephone.

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Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)

Nikkei 225 - JPX IN, Sony Financial OUT

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc announced that it would delete Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) from a few of its indices and in the case of...

Travis Lundy

This Month in Blockchain & Cryptos: Bitcoin Price Rally in 2020, OverFuture's Digital IPO, & Vakt

Both Bitcoin and gold prices are rallying this year and this is probably a sign of a HEDGE against political instability in China, in our view....

Douglas Kim

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Roundup Part 1 - Mr Market Calls a Bottom

FIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In...

Campbell Gunn

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Xi Jinping Embraces Blockchain & Bitcoin Price Surges Higher

The past few days have been monumental in the short history of blockchain as China's president Xi Jinping stated that the country should "seize the...

Douglas Kim

Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP) - Underwhelming but Not Unexpected (1Q FY3/2020 Results)

1Q FY3/2020 results from Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP), one of Japan’s largest regional banks, were underwhelming. However, a weaker first half had been...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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