Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Monex is locked limit up after the company announced that it would list its US Tradestation unit through an SPAC with Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital getting involved in a PIPE. They also released a rather punchy ¥650bn SOTP valuation vs. the current limit up market cap of ¥192bn. We likey.

Monex is locked limit up after the company announced that it would list its US Tradestation unit through an SPAC with Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital getting involved in a PIPE. They also released a rather punchy ¥650bn SOTP valuation vs. the current limit up market cap of ¥192bn. We likey.

Equity Bottom-Up

Monex delivered a reasonable 2Q though crypto revenue and PBT slightly undershot our estimates which were based on Coincheck trading volumes for Bitcoin. Nevertheless, with crypto threatening another breakout it is the future which matters and Monex’s shareholder return policy change is interesting.

Monex delivered a reasonable 2Q though crypto revenue and PBT slightly undershot our estimates which were based on Coincheck trading volumes for Bitcoin. Nevertheless, with crypto threatening another breakout it is the future which matters and Monex’s shareholder return policy change is interesting.

Monex – Shareholder Return Policy Change Signals Confidence

Monex is breaking out of its recent downtrend at a time when cryptocurrency prices are recovering. We have been consistently arguing that the name is cheap relative to peers and higher quality given proven management and shareholder friendliness.

Monex is breaking out of its recent downtrend at a time when cryptocurrency prices are recovering. We have been consistently arguing that the name is cheap relative to peers and higher quality given proven management and shareholder friendliness.

Monex stock is down 35% since the end of February due to falling cryptocurrency prices, however, continuing strength in its Japanese and US brokerage businesses and the potential for a cryptocurrency rebound create a strong risk-reward skew here.

Monex stock is down 35% since the end of February due to falling cryptocurrency prices, however, continuing strength in its Japanese and US brokerage businesses and the potential for a cryptocurrency rebound create a strong risk-reward skew here.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team has suggested a methodology change to the Nikkei 225 Average.</li>
<li>It involves capping stocks, creating a method for re-weighting once capped then stocks fall, and they recommend changing to a semi-annual Periodic Review - twice a year rather than once.</li>
<li>More interestingly, they also change the "High Liquidity" definition to be related to traded value not volume, which starts to favour higher-market cap stocks with more shares out.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team has suggested a methodology change to the Nikkei 225 Average.
It involves capping stocks, creating a method for re-weighting once capped then stocks fall, and they recommend changing to a semi-annual Periodic Review - twice a year rather than once.
More interestingly, they also change the "High Liquidity" definition to be related to traded value not volume, which starts to favour higher-market cap stocks with more shares out.


Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough

Japan

Monex Group, Inc. is a holding company, which was established through merger between Monex and Nikko Beans. The Company manages its subsidiaries that provides investing services for self-directed investors through Internet and telephone.

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Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)

Monex - ¥650bn in Value You Say?

Monex is locked limit up after the company announced that it would list its US Tradestation unit through an SPAC also released a rather punchy...

Mio Kato

Monex – Shareholder Return Policy Change Signals Confidence

Monex delivered just an OK 2Q but with crypto threatening another breakout it is the future which matters and Monex’s shareholder return policy...

Mio Kato

Monex – Breaking Out of Downtrend

Monex is breaking out of its downtrend as cryptocurrency prices are recovering. We have argued that the name is cheap and high quality given proven...

Mio Kato

Monex – Ready for a Crypto Recovery

The continuing strength in Monex's Japanese and US brokerage businesses and the potential for a cryptocurrency rebound create a strong risk-reward...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough

The Nikkei proposes changes to the Nikkei 225 methodology. There is a cap, a cap re-mark, and a move to twice-annual reviews. And there is also a...

Travis Lundy

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