Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> reported 4QFY06/2024 and full-year results today. Earnings were in line with guidance, but operating losses have declined significantly beating consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>The company has issued guidance which calls for a break-even or an adj. OPM of 3% for FY06/2025E suggesting freee’s investments in marketing and client acquisition have finally paid off.</li>
<li>Freee’s share price has moved up slightly during the last few weeks, but still trading at a discount to its own multiples and at a steep discount to Money Forward.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 4QFY06/2024 and full-year results today. Earnings were in line with guidance, but operating losses have declined significantly beating consensus by a huge margin.
The company has issued guidance which calls for a break-even or an adj. OPM of 3% for FY06/2025E suggesting freee’s investments in marketing and client acquisition have finally paid off.
Freee’s share price has moved up slightly during the last few weeks, but still trading at a discount to its own multiples and at a steep discount to Money Forward.


Freee 4Q: Significant Decline in Losses; Soon to Turn Profitable

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Amidst the volatility in the Japanese yen, companies like Money Forward, with a strong domestic revenue base and minimal exposure to forex risk, present an attractive investment opportunity.</li>
<li>Despite broader market uncertainties, Money Forward continues to demonstrate impressive growth, with its corporate ARR surging by 38% YoY in the most recent quarter, signaling sustained momentum.</li>
<li>The recent agreement to divest 49% of its non-core B2C segment, Money Forward ME, underscores the significant undervaluation of its core operations. </li>
</ul>


Amidst the volatility in the Japanese yen, companies like Money Forward, with a strong domestic revenue base and minimal exposure to forex risk, present an attractive investment opportunity.
Despite broader market uncertainties, Money Forward continues to demonstrate impressive growth, with its corporate ARR surging by 38% YoY in the most recent quarter, signaling sustained momentum.
The recent agreement to divest 49% of its non-core B2C segment, Money Forward ME, underscores the significant undervaluation of its core operations. 


Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility

<ul>
<li>Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.</li>
<li>We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.</li>
<li>No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. </li>
</ul>


Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.
We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.
No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. 


<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s share price has declined by around 16% since reporting Q1 results.</li>
<li>The company will report Q2 results in early July. We expect continued solid momentum</li>
<li>We believe the stock price has around 30% upside potential to our target price of ¥6,600</li>
</ul>


Money Forward’s share price has declined by around 16% since reporting Q1 results.
The company will report Q2 results in early July. We expect continued solid momentum
We believe the stock price has around 30% upside potential to our target price of ¥6,600


Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

<ul>
<li>Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen</li>
<li>Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance</li>
<li>The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation </li>
</ul>


Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen
Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance
The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation 


Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

Freee 4Q: Significant Decline in Losses; Soon to Turn Profitable

Freee's 4Q losses declined significantly, which beat consensus by a wide margin. Guidance for FY06/2025E calls for operating profits as...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility

Japanese fintech company Money Forward presents an attractive investment opportunity with strong domestic revenue, impressive growth, and...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Freee 4Q: Significant Decline in Losses; Soon to Turn Profitable

​Freee's 4Q losses declined significantly, which beat consensus by a wide margin. Guidance for FY06/2025E calls for operating profits as...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility

​Japanese fintech company Money Forward presents an attractive investment opportunity with strong domestic revenue, impressive growth, and...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

​Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

​Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

​Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Freee's 4Q losses declined significantly, which beat consensus by a wide margin. Guidance for FY06/2025E calls for operating profits as...

Japanese fintech company Money Forward presents an attractive investment opportunity with strong domestic revenue, impressive growth, and...

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...