IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> announced an offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> to acquire up to 23.8m shares (20.00% stake) at JPY340, a 7.6% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>There is no minimum acceptance condition. The shares are trading above the offer price, either due to expectations of a bump or to the SBI alliance benefiting the back-end valuation.</li>
<li>A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a neutral stance. </li>
</ul>


On 28 August, BASE Inc (4477 JP) announced an offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) to acquire up to 23.8m shares (20.00% stake) at JPY340, a 7.6% premium to the undisturbed price. 
There is no minimum acceptance condition. The shares are trading above the offer price, either due to expectations of a bump or to the SBI alliance benefiting the back-end valuation.
A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a neutral stance. 


BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Partial Tender Offer Needs a Price Bump

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September 2026 Nikkei 225 Review was announced today. Results are discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep26-rebal-results-3-adds-3-dels-no-new-rules-impact" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:266702" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact</a>. </li>
<li>Things went roughly as predicted for the selection of data they chose (there was a question about industry categorisation). Some people questioned discretionary ordering. That's settled. </li>
<li>With 92% of the Mar27 rebal data period behind us, we take a brief look at what the March 2027 rebal. It's kind of confusing. The third delete is tough. </li>
</ul>


The September 2026 Nikkei 225 Review was announced today. Results are discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact. 
Things went roughly as predicted for the selection of data they chose (there was a question about industry categorisation). Some people questioned discretionary ordering. That's settled. 
With 92% of the Mar27 rebal data period behind us, we take a brief look at what the March 2027 rebal. It's kind of confusing. The third delete is tough. 


[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese stocks have maintained their positive start to the year. The Nikkei average rose by +1.1% on the week with chip stocks leading the gains.</li>
<li>Money Forward was up +19% on strong Q4 sales (+42% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen</li>
<li>Activist Oasis wants a say on Shidax MBO; Earnings season kicks up a gear next week</li>
</ul>


Japanese stocks have maintained their positive start to the year. The Nikkei average rose by +1.1% on the week with chip stocks leading the gains.
Money Forward was up +19% on strong Q4 sales (+42% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
Activist Oasis wants a say on Shidax MBO; Earnings season kicks up a gear next week


Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers

<ul>
<li>Topix fell 2.3% due to Wall Street losses as Jerome Powell cited high inflation, and global stocks were pressured by surging bond yields.</li>
<li>Major Movers: Small-cap, high growth stocks got killed, especially on any slight earnings miss. Consumer staples, regional banks outperformed</li>
<li>Activist Watch: Investors lifting stakes in Rinnai (-3.4%), Topcon (+1.6%) and Kureha (+1%); Yaizu Suisan's outcome remains uncertain after a failed tender offer</li>
</ul>


Topix fell 2.3% due to Wall Street losses as Jerome Powell cited high inflation, and global stocks were pressured by surging bond yields.
Major Movers: Small-cap, high growth stocks got killed, especially on any slight earnings miss. Consumer staples, regional banks outperformed
Activist Watch: Investors lifting stakes in Rinnai (-3.4%), Topcon (+1.6%) and Kureha (+1%); Yaizu Suisan's outcome remains uncertain after a failed tender offer


Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai, Topcon, Kureha

<ul>
<li>Wage pressures continue to build in Japan. The country's largest employer of part-time workers, AEON, is raising wages. Same goes for systems operator, TIS</li>
<li>It has been a disappointing year for shareholders of Z Holdings - perhaps a management change and new round of restructuring will help</li>
<li>Divergent fortunes for SPE names Screen and Lasertec. Suspect this has more to do with short term positioning. The fundamentals are broadly similar</li>
</ul>


Wage pressures continue to build in Japan. The country's largest employer of part-time workers, AEON, is raising wages. Same goes for systems operator, TIS
It has been a disappointing year for shareholders of Z Holdings - perhaps a management change and new round of restructuring will help
Divergent fortunes for SPE names Screen and Lasertec. Suspect this has more to do with short term positioning. The fundamentals are broadly similar


Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Money Forward (3994 JP)

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Partial Tender Offer Needs a Price Bump

A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a...

Arun George

[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 results are announced. That means we can have a pretty good look at what happens in March 2027 (though the choice of Capcom vs...

Travis Lundy

Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers

Japanese stocks continue to rise, led by chip stocks, while Money Forward sees strong Q4 sales and Activist Oasis seeks involvement in Shidax MBO....

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai, Topcon, Kureha

Wall Street losses and concerns over inflation led to a 2.3% drop in Topix, while small-cap stocks suffered. Activist investors increased their...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

We take a look at the stocks that have been moving the Japanese equity markets over the past week. Z Holdings was the standout performer on restra...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Partial Tender Offer Needs a Price Bump

A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a...

Arun George

[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 results are announced. That means we can have a pretty good look at what happens in March 2027 (though the choice of Capcom vs...

Travis Lundy

Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers

​Japanese stocks continue to rise, led by chip stocks, while Money Forward sees strong Q4 sales and Activist Oasis seeks involvement in Shidax MBO....

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai, Topcon, Kureha

​Wall Street losses and concerns over inflation led to a 2.3% drop in Topix, while small-cap stocks suffered. Activist investors increased their...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

We take a look at the stocks that have been moving the Japanese equity markets over the past week. Z Holdings was the standout performer on restra...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese stocks continue to rise, led by chip stocks, while Money Forward sees strong Q4 sales and Activist Oasis seeks involvement in Shidax MBO....

Wall Street losses and concerns over inflation led to a 2.3% drop in Topix, while small-cap stocks suffered. Activist investors increased their...