Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.</li>
<li>The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.</li>
<li>Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.
The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.
Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.


ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Transwarp Technology (Shanghai) / Equity Capital Markets

Transwarp Technology (Shanghai) (TSWRP HK)

<ul>
<li>TRANSWARP emphasizes its "full-stack self-developed" technical capabilities, and its products have a high degree of standardization. They demonstrate strong competitiveness in the private deployment scenarios. </li>
<li>TRANSWARP has a significant structural mismatch in working capital management. There will still be net loss in 2026, and there is uncertainty regarding the short-term path to achieving sustainable profitability.</li>
<li>Compared with peers, the products developed by TRANSWARP have a wider range of categories and a larger market space. In our view, a neutral scenario could be P/S of 20x. </li>
</ul>


TRANSWARP emphasizes its "full-stack self-developed" technical capabilities, and its products have a high degree of standardization. They demonstrate strong competitiveness in the private deployment scenarios. 
TRANSWARP has a significant structural mismatch in working capital management. There will still be net loss in 2026, and there is uncertainty regarding the short-term path to achieving sustainable profitability.
Compared with peers, the products developed by TRANSWARP have a wider range of categories and a larger market space. In our view, a neutral scenario could be P/S of 20x. 


Pre-IPO Transwarp Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.</li><li>As of last Friday’s close, the S&amp;P 500 is up about 2% YTD. However, without the contribution of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) it would be flat YTD.</li><li>Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.</li></ul>

Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.As of last Friday’s close, the S&amp;P 500 is up about 2% YTD. However, without the contribution of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) it would be flat YTD.Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

And just like that, the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy has paid off. Primarily responsible for new highs in these indexes is Technology (esp. software and semis/semi suppliers) and FAANG stocks. While these areas all remain bullish, we still have some reservations due to the massive disparity in performance between them and the Materials (XLB, XME) and Energy (RYE) Sectors, and also small-caps (IWM) which continue to hit new RS lows. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Homebuilding, Large-Cap, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Small-Cap.

And just like that, the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy has paid off. Primarily responsible for new highs in these indexes is Technology (esp. software and semis/semi suppliers) and FAANG stocks. While these areas all remain bullish, we still have some reservations due to the massive disparity in performance between them and the Materials (XLB, XME) and Energy (RYE) Sectors, and also small-caps (IWM) which continue to hit new RS lows. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Homebuilding, Large-Cap, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Small-Cap.

U.S. Equities: Still Bullish, With Reservations

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia stock price was down slightly yesterday, in response to stellar results and guidance. It probably reflects exhaustion after the SOXX’s ~60% rally in 2 months. </li>
<li>What about Software aka IGV ETF? Since end of March, the recovery has been a modest 20% with some stocks up more than 50%. A few stocks still look interesting. </li>
<li>Holding to the Hyperscalers has been 1) less volatile 2) more profitable than Software. The group is up 29% since end March ’26. </li>
</ul>


Nvidia stock price was down slightly yesterday, in response to stellar results and guidance. It probably reflects exhaustion after the SOXX’s ~60% rally in 2 months. 
What about Software aka IGV ETF? Since end of March, the recovery has been a modest 20% with some stocks up more than 50%. A few stocks still look interesting. 
Holding to the Hyperscalers has been 1) less volatile 2) more profitable than Software. The group is up 29% since end March ’26. 


SOXX, Hyperscalers and IGV. Slow Recovery in Software Names, a Few Catch-Up Opportunities

United States

MongoDB, Inc. develops database software. The Company provides an open-source database platform for automating, monitoring, and deployment backups. MongoDB renders enterprise software integration, platform certification, and commercial licensing services. MongoDB serves clients worldwide.

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MongoDB (MDB US)

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

Pre-IPO Transwarp Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

TRANSWARP's core team has been deeply engaged in the field of big data and AI basic software for over a decade. But path to achieving sustainable...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 3/27

Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

U.S. Equities: Still Bullish, With Reservations

And just like that, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy...

Vermilion Research

SOXX, Hyperscalers and IGV. Slow Recovery in Software Names, a Few Catch-Up Opportunities

Nvidia stock dips after strong results, Software ETF lags behind, Hyperscalers outperform in recent market trends. 4 Software catch-up opportunities.

Nicolas Baratte

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ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

Pre-IPO Transwarp Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

TRANSWARP's core team has been deeply engaged in the field of big data and AI basic software for over a decade. But path to achieving sustainable...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 3/27

Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

U.S. Equities: Still Bullish, With Reservations

And just like that, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy...

Vermilion Research

SOXX, Hyperscalers and IGV. Slow Recovery in Software Names, a Few Catch-Up Opportunities

​Nvidia stock dips after strong results, Software ETF lags behind, Hyperscalers outperform in recent market trends. 4 Software catch-up opportunities.

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia stock dips after strong results, Software ETF lags behind, Hyperscalers outperform in recent market trends. 4 Software catch-up opportunities.