Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>'s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in September 2024.</li>
<li>There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.</li>
</ul>



Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)'s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.


Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> ’s share price has been volatile during the last few months despite the company reporting a strong set of results for 1QFY10/2025. </li>
<li>Timee is the market leader in Japan while Mercari Hallo is still attempting to build its business. Our analysis shows that there is further room for Timee’s earnings to expand. </li>
<li>Some of Japanese high-growth companies (incl. Monotaro, GMO Payment and Shift) have traded at exorbitant multiples during their high growth phase and we think Timee’s valuation multiples are justified.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP) ’s share price has been volatile during the last few months despite the company reporting a strong set of results for 1QFY10/2025. 
Timee is the market leader in Japan while Mercari Hallo is still attempting to build its business. Our analysis shows that there is further room for Timee’s earnings to expand. 
Some of Japanese high-growth companies (incl. Monotaro, GMO Payment and Shift) have traded at exorbitant multiples during their high growth phase and we think Timee’s valuation multiples are justified.


Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Economic Uncertainty &amp; BOJ Policy Shift: Japan's GDP growth slowed, consumer spending weakened, and the BOJ signaled tighter monetary policy, pushing bond yields to multi-year highs.</li>
<li>
Global Trade &amp; Market Volatility: U.S. recession fears, yen appreciation, and renewed trade tensions, including Trump's tariff threats, weighed on investor sentiment despite a late tech stock rebound.</li>
<li>
 Advantest and Disco surged on AI and semiconductor demand, while Recruit fell due to U.S. hiring weakness, highlighting sector-specific growth and risks.</li>
</ul>



Economic Uncertainty &amp; BOJ Policy Shift: Japan's GDP growth slowed, consumer spending weakened, and the BOJ signaled tighter monetary policy, pushing bond yields to multi-year highs.

Global Trade &amp; Market Volatility: U.S. recession fears, yen appreciation, and renewed trade tensions, including Trump's tariff threats, weighed on investor sentiment despite a late tech stock rebound.

 Advantest and Disco surged on AI and semiconductor demand, while Recruit fell due to U.S. hiring weakness, highlighting sector-specific growth and risks.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Markets Struggle Amid Economic Uncertainty

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is confirmed. </li>
<li>For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is still tops. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> second. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> third.</li>
<li>Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-6525-upcoming-lockup-expiry-and-big-index-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baycurrent-consulting-6532-high-growth-ok-multiple-big-index-inclusion-coming-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>). Now we count flows.</li>
</ul>


The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is confirmed. 
For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is still tops. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) second. Shift Inc (3697 JP) third.
Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I wrote bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (link). Now we count flows.


[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.


Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

Japan

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. mainly sells machine tools, engine parts, and factory consumable goods on the web site.

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MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Ryohin Keikaku's stock price has surged since NKY inclusion, and the increase in market cap should result in global index inclusion in August....

Brian Freitas

Japan Strategy Weekly | Markets Struggle Amid Economic Uncertainty

Japan's economic slowdown and BOJ policy shift impact bond yields, while global trade tensions and market volatility weigh on investor sentiment....

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 rebal has <8 weeks to go before it is set. ADDs and DELETEs are mostly decided. The bigger question is the capping of...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Ryohin Keikaku's stock price has surged since NKY inclusion, and the increase in market cap should result in global index inclusion in August....

Brian Freitas

Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point

Timee will report 2Q earnings on 12th June and this insight offers a glimpse into the company's 1Q earnings and our view on the stock

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Japan Strategy Weekly | Markets Struggle Amid Economic Uncertainty

​Japan's economic slowdown and BOJ policy shift impact bond yields, while global trade tensions and market volatility weigh on investor sentiment....

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 rebal has <8 weeks to go before it is set. ADDs and DELETEs are mostly decided. The bigger question is the capping of...

Travis Lundy

Japan's economic slowdown and BOJ policy shift impact bond yields, while global trade tensions and market volatility weigh on investor sentiment....