Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Mosaic Company reported mixed conditions in late 2025 and entered 2026 with improving production but ongoing market headwinds.</li><li>The fourth quarter was weaker than expected as U.S. phosphate demand fell sharply when farmers delayed purchases due to affordability concerns and uncertainty around government support payments.</li><li>North American phosphate shipments declined during the year, though the company said its own sales held up better than the broader market, suggesting some market share gains.</li></ul>

The Mosaic Company reported mixed conditions in late 2025 and entered 2026 with improving production but ongoing market headwinds.The fourth quarter was weaker than expected as U.S. phosphate demand fell sharply when farmers delayed purchases due to affordability concerns and uncertainty around government support payments.North American phosphate shipments declined during the year, though the company said its own sales held up better than the broader market, suggesting some market share gains.

The Mosaic Company: Phosphate Production Rebound

<ul><li>The Mosaic Company's third-quarter 2025 results showcase a complex financial landscape characterized by significant investments, strong regional performances, and strategic asset reallocations.</li><li>The company reported a substantial increase in net income to $411 million compared to $122 million in the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $806 million from $448 million.</li><li>This improvement was primarily driven by higher prices across all segments and particularly robust performance in Mosaic Fertilizantes.</li></ul>

The Mosaic Company's third-quarter 2025 results showcase a complex financial landscape characterized by significant investments, strong regional performances, and strategic asset reallocations.The company reported a substantial increase in net income to $411 million compared to $122 million in the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $806 million from $448 million.This improvement was primarily driven by higher prices across all segments and particularly robust performance in Mosaic Fertilizantes.

Mosaic Surges in Brazil: How Its Fertilizantes Unit Keeps Beating EBITDA Targets Despite Market Pressures!

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow</li>
<li>Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card</li>
<li>Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war </li>
</ul>


We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow
Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card
Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war 


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Although the conflict in the Middle East has caused fertilizer prices to surge, Chinese manufacturers have not benefited because of Beijing's price and export controls.</li>
<li>China is protecting fertilizer supplies for its farmers while the Strait of Hormuz is closed.  Global dependence on the Middle East for products such as urea and DAP is high.</li>
<li>Share prices of Chinese fertilizer companies in both the A-share market and Hong Kong have declined since the start of the war.  </li>
</ul>


Although the conflict in the Middle East has caused fertilizer prices to surge, Chinese manufacturers have not benefited because of Beijing's price and export controls.
China is protecting fertilizer supplies for its farmers while the Strait of Hormuz is closed.  Global dependence on the Middle East for products such as urea and DAP is high.
Share prices of Chinese fertilizer companies in both the A-share market and Hong Kong have declined since the start of the war.  


CHINA FERTILIZER INDUSTRY: Waiting for the Harvest!

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>High Oil prices start to filter into other sectors of the market</li>
<li>Pressure is mounting on US assets as financial conditions tighten</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
High Oil prices start to filter into other sectors of the market
Pressure is mounting on US assets as financial conditions tighten


United States

The Mosaic Company produces and distributes crop nutrients to the agricultural communities located in North America and other countries.  The Company's principal products include concentrated phosphates, and potash.

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Mosaic Co/The (MOS US)

The Mosaic Company: Phosphate Production Rebound

The Mosaic Company reported mixed conditions in late 2025 and entered 2026 with improving production but ongoing market headwinds. The fourth...

Baptista Research

Mosaic Surges in Brazil: How Its Fertilizantes Unit Keeps Beating EBITDA Targets Despite Market Pressures!

The Mosaic Company's third-quarter 2025 results showcase a complex financial landscape characterized by significant investments, strong regional...

Baptista Research

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

CHINA FERTILIZER INDUSTRY: Waiting for the Harvest!

Although the conflict in the Middle East has caused fertilizer prices to surge, Chinese manufacturers have not benefited because of Beijing's price...

David Mudd

Overview #53 – Second Order Effects

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at other stock market sectors benefiting from higher oil prices.

Rikki Malik

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Market Cap (USDm)

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