Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fourteen years after its acquisition, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/incitec-pivot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1127:1" rel="noopener">Incitec Pivot (IPL AU)</a></strong> plans to demerge Dyno Nobel from its fertilizer ops.</li>
<li>The split has been a long time coming. A strategic review of its fertilizer segments dates back to at least September 2019. </li>
<li>If the demerger is approved, IPL shareholders will receive shares in Incitec Pivot Fertilisers Limited in proportion to their existing shareholding in IPL, which will be rebranded Dyno Nobel Limited.</li>
</ul>


Fourteen years after its acquisition, Incitec Pivot (IPL AU) plans to demerge Dyno Nobel from its fertilizer ops.
The split has been a long time coming. A strategic review of its fertilizer segments dates back to at least September 2019. 
If the demerger is approved, IPL shareholders will receive shares in Incitec Pivot Fertilisers Limited in proportion to their existing shareholding in IPL, which will be rebranded Dyno Nobel Limited.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.</li>
<li>In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. 
The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic


<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.</li>
<li>These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.</li>
<li>This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.
These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.
This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.


Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

United States

The Mosaic Company produces and distributes crop nutrients to the agricultural communities located in North America and other countries.  The Company's principal products include concentrated phosphates, and potash.

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Mosaic Co/The (MOS US)

Explosive Demerger For Incitec Pivot

The move today - down 1.4% - is illustrative of what the market expects can be extracted from the demerger. Perhaps this might shake out some...

David Blennerhassett

Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Downgrading Technology to underweight. Attractive and actionable stocks highlighted: Fertilizer, Railroad Equipment & Products, Construction &...

Vermilion Research

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

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