Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.</li>
<li>IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.</li>
<li>By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.</li>
</ul>


Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.
By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.


Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 20th July 2026, an US executive order was issued requiring major arms manufacturers to trace their  supply chains and actively phase out Chinese rare earths.</li>
<li>A week later, the FT carried an article on hedge funds increasing their bets against US critical minerals companies.</li>
<li>Given the US-Australia bilateral framework targeting critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S., it is worthwhile analysing the bets, if any, against Aussie critical minerals companies. </li>
</ul>


On the 20th July 2026, an US executive order was issued requiring major arms manufacturers to trace their  supply chains and actively phase out Chinese rare earths.
A week later, the FT carried an article on hedge funds increasing their bets against US critical minerals companies.
Given the US-Australia bilateral framework targeting critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S., it is worthwhile analysing the bets, if any, against Aussie critical minerals companies. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Australian Strategic Materials / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a> IE opinion is unchanged that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-fuels-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12230:1" rel="noopener">Energy Fuels (UUUU US)</a>’s offer (A$0.13 cash and 0.053 UUUU shares per ASM share) is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to production delays at KMP.</li>
<li>The scheme vote remains low risk. At the last close and for a 28 August payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/8.2%.</li>
</ul>


The Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) IE opinion is unchanged that Energy Fuels (UUUU US)’s offer (A$0.13 cash and 0.053 UUUU shares per ASM share) is fair and reasonable.
The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to production delays at KMP.
The scheme vote remains low risk. At the last close and for a 28 August payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/8.2%.


Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Revised Scheme Vote on 12 August

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianyou-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44886:1" rel="noopener">Lianyou Metals (7610 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanxiang-advanced-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30188:1" rel="noopener">Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elevra-lithium-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Elevra Lithium (ELVR US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> in June.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$840m.</li>
<li>All the adds have moved higher with huge price spikes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianyou-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44886:1" rel="noopener">Lianyou Metals (7610 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanxiang-advanced-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30188:1" rel="noopener">Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>



Lianyou Metals (7610 TT), Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH) and Elevra Lithium (ELVR US) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in June.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$840m.
All the adds have moved higher with huge price spikes in Lianyou Metals (7610 TT) and Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH) recently.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-fuels-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12230:1" rel="noopener">Energy Fuels (UUUU US)</a>’ offer (A$0.13 cash and 0.053 UUUU shares per ASM share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>FIRB approval was received on 23 April. The key condition is ASM shareholder approval: approval by more than 75% of votes cast and by more than 50% of shareholders.</li>
<li>Helped by the large takeover premium, the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 7 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.7%/20.0%.</li>
</ul>


The Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) IE considers Energy Fuels (UUUU US)’ offer (A$0.13 cash and 0.053 UUUU shares per ASM share) fair and reasonable.
FIRB approval was received on 23 April. The key condition is ASM shareholder approval: approval by more than 75% of votes cast and by more than 50% of shareholders.
Helped by the large takeover premium, the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 7 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.7%/20.0%.


Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Scheme Vote on 22 June

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

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MP Materials Corp (MP US)

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Two in three Americans know little about IRA. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) took years in the making and will have material implications...

Mint Finance

Betting Against Aussie Critical Minerals

PLS, which specialises in lithium exploration and production, does appear toppish. I still like Lynas, the only significant commercial producer of...

David Blennerhassett

Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Revised Scheme Vote on 12 August

The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to...

Arun George

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

There are 3 adds for REMX in June. The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and...

Brian Freitas

Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Scheme Vote on 22 June

Helped by the large takeover premium, the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 7 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.7%...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Two in three Americans know little about IRA. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) took years in the making and will have material implications...

Mint Finance

Betting Against Aussie Critical Minerals

PLS, which specialises in lithium exploration and production, does appear toppish. I still like Lynas, the only significant commercial producer of...

David Blennerhassett

Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Revised Scheme Vote on 12 August

The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to...

Arun George

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

There are 3 adds for REMX in June. The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and...

Brian Freitas

Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Scheme Vote on 22 June

Helped by the large takeover premium, the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 7 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.7%...

Arun George

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade