Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coforge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8639:1" rel="noopener">Coforge (COFORGE IN)</a> .</li>
<li>Baring has been paring down its stake since 2020 and hence, the selldown is somewhat well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in Coforge (COFORGE IN) .
Baring has been paring down its stake since 2020 and hence, the selldown is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.


Coforge Placement - US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet management</li><li>It delivered strong 20% YoY volume growth YoY (grey 20%, white/putty 12%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet managementIt delivered strong 20% YoY volume growth YoY (grey 20%, white/putty 12%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, United Spirits, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Dalmia Bharat

<ul><li>We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment ahead</li><li>While ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprises</li><li>The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary services</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment aheadWhile ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprisesThe current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary servicesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Mphasis Limited is a global IT and BPO service provider to G2000 companies around the globe, assists its clients in innovating and streamlining their business processes by offering custom solutions for technology and operations outsourcing. The Company focuses on financial services, logistics and technology verticals.

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Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Coforge Placement - US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish

Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in Coforge (COFORGE IN) . In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics...

Sumeet Singh

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, United Spirits, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Dalmia Bharat

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

IT Sector Update: Recovery ahead

The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary service

HDFC Securities

IT Sector Update - Recovery Ahead

The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary services

HDFC Securities

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