Partner, River Valley Asset Management

River Valley Asset Management

Partner

Singapore-based boutique asset management firm

River Valley Asset Management is a Singapore-based boutique asset management firm. Our team at RVAM strongly believes in being a trusted steward of our clients' wealth across generations.

Each of our fund managers has years of rich portfolio management experience over multiple market cycles at world-class investment houses. We bring our clients the combined strength of our investment team to manage their financial portfolios and to provide bespoke guidance on all aspects of their financial health.

We offer multi-asset class expert investment advice to accredited investors who are family offices, high net worth individuals and institutional investors to preserve and grow our clients' wealth.

The fund management team of the company includes Homiyar Vasania, Anand Ramachandran and Jamshed Desai.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Global markets are showing diverging trends in terms of both economic growth and asset prices. The synchronized recovery of last year has become sharply asynchronous this year. Add to that worries on emerging market contagion and trade war between the two largest economies in the world, no wonder markets are looking wobbly.  In uncertain times like these, it is sometimes better to look at history and facts rather than forward conjectures and doomsday extrapolations. In this monthly outlook from <a href="http://www.rivervalleyasset.com/" target="_blank">River Valley Asset Mgt.</a>, we look at two key facts which are stark and tell their own story. From an investment perspective, given where valuations are in Asia, the long run forward return expectations are increasingly looking attractive. Good businesses normally do not trade cheap, but there are times when uncertainty in the environment presents such an opportunity and wealth creation is about grabbing those instances. We think one such phase in a market cycle is about to be presented to investors who are patient and astute.

Global markets are showing diverging trends in terms of both economic growth and asset prices. The synchronized recovery of last year has become sharply asynchronous this year. Add to that worries on emerging market contagion and trade war between the two largest economies in the world, no wonder markets are looking wobbly.  In uncertain times like these, it is sometimes better to look at history and facts rather than forward conjectures and doomsday extrapolations. In this monthly outlook from River Valley Asset Mgt., we look at two key facts which are stark and tell their own story. From an investment perspective, given where valuations are in Asia, the long run forward return expectations are increasingly looking attractive. Good businesses normally do not trade cheap, but there are times when uncertainty in the environment presents such an opportunity and wealth creation is about grabbing those instances. We think one such phase in a market cycle is about to be presented to investors who are patient and astute.  

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows.  Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated Bottom-Fishing Buy. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit.

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows.  Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated Bottom-Fishing Buy. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit. 

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

As the year dawned, crystal gazing into 2018, we highlighted the dichotomy between bottom up opportunities which continued to excite us and weighed it versus risk from optimism and excessive valuations in narrow segments of market. Our view was that the ride will not be smooth and volatility is likely to rear its head and as investment managers our focus should be on managing the downside risk. Never did we imagine that the first three months of the year will throw up all kinds of new challenges as markets battled with policy uncertainty.  At <a href="http://www.rivervalleyasset.com/" target="_blank">River Valley Asset Management</a>, we continue to believe that rising debt burden puts a natural cap on the extent to which growth can accelerate as also the ability of interest rates to keep rising without causing collateral damage. The last decade has been a period of passing the parcel on debt growth - as households and financial sector deleveraged post the financial crisis, government's stepped in with a borrowing binge and as official sector debt started petering out over the last three years, we are back with rapid growth in financial sector leverage. Through all this growth rates have been tepid. With such a backdrop, if rates start rising the debt service burden could become a constraint on growth acceleration, in absence of productivity.

As the year dawned, crystal gazing into 2018, we highlighted the dichotomy between bottom up opportunities which continued to excite us and weighed it versus risk from optimism and excessive valuations in narrow segments of market. Our view was that the ride will not be smooth and volatility is likely to rear its head and as investment managers our focus should be on managing the downside risk. Never did we imagine that the first three months of the year will throw up all kinds of new challenges as markets battled with policy uncertainty.  At River Valley Asset Management, we continue to believe that rising debt burden puts a natural cap on the extent to which growth can accelerate as also the ability of interest rates to keep rising without causing collateral damage. The last decade has been a period of passing the parcel on debt growth - as households and financial sector deleveraged post the financial crisis, government's stepped in with a borrowing binge and as official sector debt started petering out over the last three years, we are back with rapid growth in financial sector leverage. Through all this growth rates have been tepid. With such a backdrop, if rates start rising the debt service burden could become a constraint on growth acceleration, in absence of productivity.   

Volatility, Debt Burden and Investment Strategy

The markets’ response to the February sell-off has been poor, producing in many cases what looks like a bear market rally.  Europe in particular contains a number of toppy patterns, which have begun to break downwards, and the sharp drop in the FANG stocks could also be part of top-building.  We came into 2018 looking for the end of the post-2009 bull market, and a number of indices are signalling just that.

The markets’ response to the February sell-off has been poor, producing in many cases what looks like a bear market rally.  Europe in particular contains a number of toppy patterns, which have begun to break downwards, and the sharp drop in the FANG stocks could also be part of top-building.  We came into 2018 looking for the end of the post-2009 bull market, and a number of indices are signalling just that.

S&P 500: A Dozen Reasons for Not Being Too Complacent Here

China

The MSCI AC Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1987.

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

Opportunities in Times of Uncertainty

Global markets are showing diverging trends in terms of both economic growth and asset prices. The synchronized recovery of last year has become...

River Valley Asset Management

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows. Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been...

Peter Beuttell

Volatility, Debt Burden and Investment Strategy

As the year dawned, crystal gazing into 2018, we highlighted the dichotomy between bottom up opportunities which continued to excite us and weighed...

River Valley Asset Management

S&P 500: A Dozen Reasons for Not Being Too Complacent Here

The markets’ response to the February sell-off has been poor, producing in many cases what looks like a bear market rally. Europe in particular...

Peter Beuttell