Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate).

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

In last week’s Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite hawkish Fed takeaways, it was the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that was the bigger story, however both weighed on global equities. Needless to say, everything we highlighted last week as being at a key inflection point failed to resolve in a manner that was bullish for equities. Below we highlight several developments we are watching which will help determine if the current pullback will be similar to what happened in May, or if we should expect a deeper correction. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, Gold, South Africa, and Silver, Platinum

In last week’s Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite hawkish Fed takeaways, it was the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that was the bigger story, however both weighed on global equities. Needless to say, everything we highlighted last week as being at a key inflection point failed to resolve in a manner that was bullish for equities. Below we highlight several developments we are watching which will help determine if the current pullback will be similar to what happened in May, or if we should expect a deeper correction. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, Gold, South Africa, and Silver, Platinum

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely.

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

United States

The MSCI ACWI Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1987. MXWD includes both emerging and developed world markets. 

MSCI ACWI Index (MXWD INDEX)

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Here We Go Again

In last week’s Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist...

Vermilion Research

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research