Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). </li>
<li>FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. </li>
<li>Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.</li>
</ul>


China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). 
FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. 
Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.


China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.</li>
<li>The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.</li>
<li>This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.
The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.
This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.


Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global equities and commodities contributed to gains throughout our portfolio suite, driven by positive selection effects.</li>
<li>Aggressive strategies continue to outperform their respective benchmarks YTD, especially as tech and crypto stabilize.</li>
<li>Positioning carries over into September, maintaining an underweight to bonds and overweights to global stocks and commodities.</li>
</ul>


Global equities and commodities contributed to gains throughout our portfolio suite, driven by positive selection effects.
Aggressive strategies continue to outperform their respective benchmarks YTD, especially as tech and crypto stabilize.
Positioning carries over into September, maintaining an underweight to bonds and overweights to global stocks and commodities.


Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

<ul>
<li>China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.</li>
<li>Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). </li>
<li>Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.</li>
</ul>


China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.
Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). 
Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.


China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

China

The MSCI China Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1992.

MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

Breakdown of our global multi-asset portfolios with performance and positioning. We're overweight stocks and commodities and underweight bonds,...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

​China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

​Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

Breakdown of our global multi-asset portfolios with performance and positioning. We're overweight stocks and commodities and underweight bonds,...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

​China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...