Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>1.     Emerging Markets equities and CDS suggest a new risk-on sequence:</h2><ul><li>EM stock index benchmark is on intervention levels for a new rise back and above 2018 highs.</li><li>CDS Emerging Markets is in parallel at key levels for a period of narrowing.</li><li>Intermediate EM relative outperformance/stabilization expected within the longer-term weakness.</li></ul><p> </p><h2>2.     Regional analysis suggests opportunities in Asia and CEEMEA:</h2><ul><li>China and Indonesia appear as clear outperforming countries within a mixed Asian area.</li><li>Turkey shows opportunity within a region which should experiment some relative strength for a few months.</li></ul><h2></h2><h2>RECOMMENDATION:  </h2><h2>             --&gt;  Rise in EM equities globally by 20/22% with a stabilization in relative value.</h2><h2>              --&gt; Indonesian stocks - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/482" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:482:1">iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)</a> - 22/34% rise potential with a strong narrowing of the CDS.</h2>

1.     Emerging Markets equities and CDS suggest a new risk-on sequence:EM stock index benchmark is on intervention levels for a new rise back and above 2018 highs.CDS Emerging Markets is in parallel at key levels for a period of narrowing.Intermediate EM relative outperformance/stabilization expected within the longer-term weakness. 2.     Regional analysis suggests opportunities in Asia and CEEMEA:China and Indonesia appear as clear outperforming countries within a mixed Asian area.Turkey shows opportunity within a region which should experiment some relative strength for a few months.RECOMMENDATION:               --&gt;  Rise in EM equities globally by 20/22% with a stabilization in relative value.              --&gt; Indonesian stocks - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US) - 22/34% rise potential with a strong narrowing of the CDS.

Emerging Markets Equities: Resume of the Bullish Trend Started in 2016, Indonesia to Outperform.

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul><li>MSCI adds a small slice of China to its main equity indexes</li><li>Trump cancels death sentence on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6922" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1">Zte Corp H (763 HK)</a> as a favour to Xi</li><li>The PBoC tugs furiously at its monetary levers</li><li>Li Keqiang’s Tokyo charm offensive</li><li>The dark side of technology: the rapid rollout of China’s “social credit” scheme</li></ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That MattersMSCI adds a small slice of China to its main equity indexesTrump cancels death sentence on Zte Corp H (763 HK) as a favour to XiThe PBoC tugs furiously at its monetary leversLi Keqiang’s Tokyo charm offensiveThe dark side of technology: the rapid rollout of China’s “social credit” schemeIn my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

China MSCI/ZTE/PBoC/Japan Ties/Technology Push

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.</p>

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The surge in volatility should be welcome to longer-term investors by removing some of the technical distortions that had arisen during the long unbroken run in global equities, although some momentum trades such as FANG are continuing to outperform the broader market for the time being. Whilst there will clearly be some normalisation of monetary policy in the US this year, the inflation scare is unlikely to persist given the correction in financial markets including energy prices. The most…</p>

The surge in volatility should be welcome to longer-term investors by removing some of the technical distortions that had arisen during the long unbroken run in global equities, although some momentum trades such as FANG are continuing to outperform the broader market for the time being. Whilst there will clearly be some normalisation of monetary policy in the US this year, the inflation scare is unlikely to persist given the correction in financial markets including energy prices. The most…

Cyclical Assets To Underperform From Here

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<p>If market participants were to vote for a company to be the <em>poster-boy</em> for the Asian bull market that started in early 2016, the hands down winner would be <strong>Tencent (700 HK – HKD411.40)</strong>. Not only does the stock have the most significant weighting in the MSCI China Index (Tencent and Alibaba account for more than 30% of the benchmark), but <strong>earlier this year it even usurped Samsung Electronics to become the leading stock in the MSCI Asia Free ex-Japan regional benchmark</strong>.</p><p>At last week’s new all-time high of HKD439.60, <strong>Tencent was up 145%</strong> from the late December 2016 low of HKD179.60, easily outperforming the 60% gain of the MSCI China or the MSCI Asia Free ex-Japan’s 43% advance.</p><p>The default option this year has been to buy the dip or if no dip, buy a new high. But stepping back from the shorter-term charts and <strong>focusing on monthly and weekly charts </strong>shows <strong>similar set-ups </strong>to the current situation have occurred on a number of previous occasions since 2006 and <strong>they did</strong><strong> not end well for Tencent</strong>. Buy the dip…not so fast.</p>

If market participants were to vote for a company to be the poster-boy for the Asian bull market that started in early 2016, the hands down winner would be Tencent (700 HK – HKD411.40). Not only does the stock have the most significant weighting in the MSCI China Index (Tencent and Alibaba account for more than 30% of the benchmark), but earlier this year it even usurped Samsung Electronics to become the leading stock in the MSCI Asia Free ex-Japan regional benchmark.At last week’s new all-time high of HKD439.60, Tencent was up 145% from the late December 2016 low of HKD179.60, easily outperforming the 60% gain of the MSCI China or the MSCI Asia Free ex-Japan’s 43% advance.The default option this year has been to buy the dip or if no dip, buy a new high. But stepping back from the shorter-term charts and focusing on monthly and weekly charts shows similar set-ups to the current situation have occurred on a number of previous occasions since 2006 and they did not end well for Tencent. Buy the dip…not so fast.

Tencent (700 HK): Buy the Dip? Not so Fast…

China

The MSCI China Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1992.

MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)

Emerging Markets Equities: Resume of the Bullish Trend Started in 2016, Indonesia to Outperform.

1. Emerging Markets equities and CDS suggest a new risk-on sequence: EM stock index benchmark is on intervention levels for a new rise back and...

Guillaume Coutant

China MSCI/ZTE/PBoC/Japan Ties/Technology Push

China News That Matters MSCI adds a small slice of China to its main equity indexes Trump cancels death sentence on Zte Corp H (763 HK) as a favour...

Diana Choyleva

Technical Appraisal of Global Markets

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still...

Vermilion Research

Cyclical Assets To Underperform From Here

The surge in volatility should be welcome to longer-term investors by removing some of the technical distortions that had arisen during the long...

John-Paul Smith

Tencent (700 HK): Buy the Dip? Not so Fast…

If market participants were to vote for a company to be the poster-boy for the Asian bull market that started in early 2016, the hands down winner...

Chris Roberts