Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's M2 (USD42.04trn) is double the size of US M2, having risen 10.4-fold in 18 years (far faster than the 3.1-fold increase in US M2 over that period). </li>
<li>Attempts at further monetary ease (RRR/rate cuts, QE) are futile, as they induce larger capital flight, and fail to rekindle credit demand amid PPI deflation and real-estate over-capacity. </li>
<li>RGDP growth is likely to weaken in H2CY24 as FAI and industrial growth flag, and retail sales stay sluggish. A larger trade surplus won't help, as FX reserves stagnate. </li>
</ul>


China's M2 (USD42.04trn) is double the size of US M2, having risen 10.4-fold in 18 years (far faster than the 3.1-fold increase in US M2 over that period). 
Attempts at further monetary ease (RRR/rate cuts, QE) are futile, as they induce larger capital flight, and fail to rekindle credit demand amid PPI deflation and real-estate over-capacity. 
RGDP growth is likely to weaken in H2CY24 as FAI and industrial growth flag, and retail sales stay sluggish. A larger trade surplus won't help, as FX reserves stagnate. 


China: Growth Inevitably Set to Flag as All Monetary Easing Proves Inefficacious

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>China's Local Government Financing Vehicles remain a major obstacle to faster GDP growth and confirm that the country is quickly reaching its debt limits.</li>
<li>A lack of liquidity has kept Chinese stocks from rallying even though central authorities have deployed a massive amount of targeted stimulus measures</li>
<li>My new Bitcoin price projection is between USD 224K and USD 288K, two to seven years from now. </li>
</ul>


China's Local Government Financing Vehicles remain a major obstacle to faster GDP growth and confirm that the country is quickly reaching its debt limits.
A lack of liquidity has kept Chinese stocks from rallying even though central authorities have deployed a massive amount of targeted stimulus measures
My new Bitcoin price projection is between USD 224K and USD 288K, two to seven years from now. 


Podcast dissecting business, technology & media, Analyse Asia

Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

Podcast dissecting business, technology & media

Analyse Asia

The premiere weekly podcast dissecting the pulse of business, technology & media in Asia. Hear our host interviewing leading journalists, senior executives, respectable authors & thinkers, entrepreneurs & thought leaders to discuss the most important issues that move and shake the business landscape in the Asia Pacific. The show is originally created and hosted by Bernard Leong.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Embrace all types of stimulus, even if they look different from the past</li><li>Experienced investor in Asian markets sees similarities in current sentiment to past market cycles</li><li>Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, shares his journey from journalism to finance and his passion for Asia and Chinese language and culture.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Embrace all types of stimulus, even if they look different from the pastExperienced investor in Asian markets sees similarities in current sentiment to past market cyclesMichael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, shares his journey from journalism to finance and his passion for Asia and Chinese language and culture.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Will the Stocks from China Recover & Asian Century Stocks with Michael Fritzell

<ul>
<li>PBoC's 25bp LPR and 50bp RRR cuts in Feb'24 are likely to prove ineffective palliatives to deal with the massive overhang of unsold real-estate across China. </li>
<li>Challenge manifests in urban vacancy rates of 20% (&gt;twice Japan's at its bubble peak), real and potential liquidations of Evergrande and Country Garden, and bankruptcy of Zhongzhi shadow-banking group. </li>
<li>3% FAI growth underpinned 5.2% RGDP growth in 2023 despite low base. RGDP growth in 2024 will be 4%, and less in the medium-term as FAI and non-Russia exports stagnate.  </li>
</ul>


PBoC's 25bp LPR and 50bp RRR cuts in Feb'24 are likely to prove ineffective palliatives to deal with the massive overhang of unsold real-estate across China. 
Challenge manifests in urban vacancy rates of 20% (&gt;twice Japan's at its bubble peak), real and potential liquidations of Evergrande and Country Garden, and bankruptcy of Zhongzhi shadow-banking group. 
3% FAI growth underpinned 5.2% RGDP growth in 2023 despite low base. RGDP growth in 2024 will be 4%, and less in the medium-term as FAI and non-Russia exports stagnate.  


China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

China

The MSCI China Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1992.

MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)

China: Growth Inevitably Set to Flag as All Monetary Easing Proves Inefficacious

China's M2 is double the size of US M2, but further monetary easing futile amid capital flight and lack of credit demand amid deflation and over...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

China Blues, Bitcoin Booms!

China's economic woes are far from over, and Local Government Financing Vehicles are struggling. On the bright side, my Bitcoin price projection is...

Jeroen Blokland

Will the Stocks from China Recover & Asian Century Stocks with Michael Fritzell

The podcast episode of Analyze Asia with guest Michael Fritzell delves into the Chinese and Asian stock markets, discussing market cycles, lending...

Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China: Growth Inevitably Set to Flag as All Monetary Easing Proves Inefficacious

​China's M2 is double the size of US M2, but further monetary easing futile amid capital flight and lack of credit demand amid deflation and over...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

China Blues, Bitcoin Booms!

China's economic woes are far from over, and Local Government Financing Vehicles are struggling. On the bright side, my Bitcoin price projection is...

Jeroen Blokland

Will the Stocks from China Recover & Asian Century Stocks with Michael Fritzell

The podcast episode of Analyze Asia with guest Michael Fritzell delves into the Chinese and Asian stock markets, discussing market cycles, lending...

Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

​PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China's M2 is double the size of US M2, but further monetary easing futile amid capital flight and lack of credit demand amid deflation and over...

PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...