Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>PBoC's 25bp LPR and 50bp RRR cuts in Feb'24 are likely to prove ineffective palliatives to deal with the massive overhang of unsold real-estate across China. </li>
<li>Challenge manifests in urban vacancy rates of 20% (&gt;twice Japan's at its bubble peak), real and potential liquidations of Evergrande and Country Garden, and bankruptcy of Zhongzhi shadow-banking group. </li>
<li>3% FAI growth underpinned 5.2% RGDP growth in 2023 despite low base. RGDP growth in 2024 will be 4%, and less in the medium-term as FAI and non-Russia exports stagnate.  </li>
</ul>


PBoC's 25bp LPR and 50bp RRR cuts in Feb'24 are likely to prove ineffective palliatives to deal with the massive overhang of unsold real-estate across China. 
Challenge manifests in urban vacancy rates of 20% (&gt;twice Japan's at its bubble peak), real and potential liquidations of Evergrande and Country Garden, and bankruptcy of Zhongzhi shadow-banking group. 
3% FAI growth underpinned 5.2% RGDP growth in 2023 despite low base. RGDP growth in 2024 will be 4%, and less in the medium-term as FAI and non-Russia exports stagnate.  


China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>First, Japan entered a recession, and a week later, the Nikkei hit an all-time high after 34 years. Any idea why this is?</li>
<li>The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has updated its global debt chart. Be aware that it does NOT show the true underlying trend.</li>
<li>You are only allowed to trade Chinese equities if you are going to buy them. China will have a serious long-term issue in attracting fresh capital.</li>
</ul>


First, Japan entered a recession, and a week later, the Nikkei hit an all-time high after 34 years. Any idea why this is?
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has updated its global debt chart. Be aware that it does NOT show the true underlying trend.
You are only allowed to trade Chinese equities if you are going to buy them. China will have a serious long-term issue in attracting fresh capital.


The Weekly Market Monitor – The 34-Year Wait Is Over!

<ul>
<li>The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.</li>
<li>Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.</li>
<li>When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!</li>
</ul>


The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.
Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.
When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!


The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

<ul>
<li>The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?</li>
<li>China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?</li>
<li>UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.</li>
</ul>


The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?
China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?
UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.


The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

<ul>
<li>2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.</li>
<li>China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.</li>
<li>A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.</li>
</ul>


2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.
China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.
A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.


The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

China

The MSCI China Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1992.

MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)

China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Weekly Market Monitor – The 34-Year Wait Is Over!

Investments highlighted: Nikkei 225 Index, Japan 10-year yield, DAX Index, Chinese Equities, Walmart, Nvidia, Bitcoin, Gold, Treasuries.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on last week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

The Weekly Market Monitor! Start your week in financial markets, with some of last week’s biggest surprises, stories and charts.

Jeroen Blokland

The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

China wants to further diversify its foreign reserve holdings, which likely means less US Treasuries and more Gold buying.

Jeroen Blokland

China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

​PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Weekly Market Monitor – The 34-Year Wait Is Over!

Investments highlighted: Nikkei 225 Index, Japan 10-year yield, DAX Index, Chinese Equities, Walmart, Nvidia, Bitcoin, Gold, Treasuries.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on last week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

The Weekly Market Monitor! Start your week in financial markets, with some of last week’s biggest surprises, stories and charts.

Jeroen Blokland

The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

China wants to further diversify its foreign reserve holdings, which likely means less US Treasuries and more Gold buying.

Jeroen Blokland

PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...