Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity Index (GLI) moves higher to 17.5 (normal range 0-100). Most national liquidity indexes bottomed around October 2022 
</li>
<li>
Global Liquidity will reverse its recent fall and rebound to US$174 trillion. Rising Central Bank Liquidity is a common theme. Financial dominance driving a return to Central Bank QE.</li>
<li>More liquidity is consistent with future stabilisation and moderate gains in World asset markets. Rebound investment phase. Emerging Markets and Cyclicals favoured. Gold, commodities and crypto also could be winners</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity Index (GLI) moves higher to 17.5 (normal range 0-100). Most national liquidity indexes bottomed around October 2022 


Global Liquidity will reverse its recent fall and rebound to US$174 trillion. Rising Central Bank Liquidity is a common theme. Financial dominance driving a return to Central Bank QE.
More liquidity is consistent with future stabilisation and moderate gains in World asset markets. Rebound investment phase. Emerging Markets and Cyclicals favoured. Gold, commodities and crypto also could be winners


Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>The International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) recently confirmed important aspects of its proposed sustainability reporting standards. One step closer to a unified standard.</li>
<li>Particularly noteworthy is confirmation that disclosures of Scope 3 emissions will be required. Scope 3 emissions are largely unreported, but account for the majority of total emissions.</li>
<li>Scope 3 disclosure could have repercussions for ESG ratings, ESG indices based on ESG ratings, and potentially (though too soon to tell) reconstutions of exchange-traded funds.</li>
</ul>


The International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) recently confirmed important aspects of its proposed sustainability reporting standards. One step closer to a unified standard.
Particularly noteworthy is confirmation that disclosures of Scope 3 emissions will be required. Scope 3 emissions are largely unreported, but account for the majority of total emissions.
Scope 3 disclosure could have repercussions for ESG ratings, ESG indices based on ESG ratings, and potentially (though too soon to tell) reconstutions of exchange-traded funds.


ISSB Affirms Scope 3 Emissions Reporting Requirements and Investor-Centric Focus

<ul>
<li>
 S&amp;P500 (SPX) likely to test 3200, may be even 3000, as earnings get crushed. It looks like a classic ‘second leg-down’ in the bear market</li>
<li>Tight Central Bank Liquidity has hit sensitive bond markets driving yields higher, but also causing term premia to worryingly collapse to near all-time lows 
</li>
<li>Term premia fall is already set-in-stone and historically has led to much weaker reported corporate earnings some 15 months later. Hence US S&amp;P500 earnings could skid by 20% in 2023 
</li>
</ul>



 S&amp;P500 (SPX) likely to test 3200, may be even 3000, as earnings get crushed. It looks like a classic ‘second leg-down’ in the bear market
Tight Central Bank Liquidity has hit sensitive bond markets driving yields higher, but also causing term premia to worryingly collapse to near all-time lows 

Term premia fall is already set-in-stone and historically has led to much weaker reported corporate earnings some 15 months later. Hence US S&amp;P500 earnings could skid by 20% in 2023 



The Second Leg Down In This Bear Market May Be Happening Now?

<ul>
<li>After its IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (LGENERGY KS)</a> is destined for inclusion in various indexes, from broad market indexes to countless sustainable/ESG niche indexes.</li>
<li>The sustainable/ESG index niche includes a growing number of EV/EV battery-themes indexes in large part because of the climate-importance of decarbonising transportation.</li>
<li>Indexing leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17865:1" rel="noopener">MSCI (MSCI US)</a> publishes a number general sustainable/ESG indexes relevant to LGES, and small number of thematic indexes like the Future Mobility Index.</li>
</ul>


After its IPO, LG Energy Solution (LGENERGY KS) is destined for inclusion in various indexes, from broad market indexes to countless sustainable/ESG niche indexes.
The sustainable/ESG index niche includes a growing number of EV/EV battery-themes indexes in large part because of the climate-importance of decarbonising transportation.
Indexing leader MSCI (MSCI US) publishes a number general sustainable/ESG indexes relevant to LGES, and small number of thematic indexes like the Future Mobility Index.


LG Energy Solution (Pre-IPO ESG Analysis): Relevant Thematic Sustainable/ESG Indices from MSCI

Writing about High Quality Companies, Enlightened Capital

Enlightened Capital

Writing about High Quality Companies

I have more than 8 years of investing experience across Equities and Fixed Income (Investment Grade/High Yield). I have largely focused on Financials, Energy, and Utilities professionally, but I am interested in exploring new sectors to find attractive opportunities. Right now, the Payments sector is occupying much of my time.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MSCI’s roots date back to 1969, when Capital Group pioneered the development of global equity indexes and began licensing its first index.</li><li>Since its IPO on 11/14/2007, MSCI has generated an exceptional total return of 3,732% substantially outperforming the 316% total return for the S&amp;P 500</li><li>While MSCI represents the type of high-quality business I would like to own, I believe MSCI’s quality attributes and growth prospects are currently priced in</li></ul>

MSCI’s roots date back to 1969, when Capital Group pioneered the development of global equity indexes and began licensing its first index.Since its IPO on 11/14/2007, MSCI has generated an exceptional total return of 3,732% substantially outperforming the 316% total return for the S&amp;P 500While MSCI represents the type of high-quality business I would like to own, I believe MSCI’s quality attributes and growth prospects are currently priced in

United States

MSCI Inc. provides investment decision support tools to investment institutions worldwide. The Company produces indices and risk and return portfolio analytics for use in managing investment portfolios.

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MSCI Inc (MSCI US)

Global Liquidity Has Bottomed …

Spurred by rising Global Liquidity, expect strong gains in several asset markets. But major World equities and bonds may be largely range-bound for...

Michael J. Howell

ISSB Affirms Scope 3 Emissions Reporting Requirements and Investor-Centric Focus

Confirmation of key aspects of the ISSB sustainability reporting standards bring us one step closer to a single, investor-centric reporting...

Kyle Rudden

The Second Leg Down In This Bear Market May Be Happening Now?

S&P500 (SPX) likely to test 3200, may be even 3000, as earnings get crushed. Bond markets already warn that US EPS could skid by minus 20% in 2023....

Michael J. Howell

LG Energy Solution (Pre-IPO ESG Analysis): Relevant Thematic Sustainable/ESG Indices from MSCI

LG Energy Solution is destined for inclusion in countless indexes, from broad market indexes to thematic sustainable/ESG indexes such as MSCI's...

Kyle Rudden

MSCI Deep Dive

MSCI’s roots date back to 1969, when Capital Group pioneered the development of global equity indexes and began licensing its first index....

Enlightened Capital

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