Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The steepening US Treasury yield curve is consistent with a rising Global Liquidity cycle</li>
<li>Independent evidence shows that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 at an index of 11.8 (range 0-100)</li>
<li>The next Global Liquidity cycle peak is unlikely before September 2025. The investment cycle is in a Rebound investment phase</li>
</ul>


The steepening US Treasury yield curve is consistent with a rising Global Liquidity cycle
Independent evidence shows that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 at an index of 11.8 (range 0-100)
The next Global Liquidity cycle peak is unlikely before September 2025. The investment cycle is in a Rebound investment phase


Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Global central banks, including the Fed and BoJ, maintain a cautious but solid economic outlook for 2026, setting the stage for continued long-term equity investment.</li>
<li>Despite early-year outperformance in Asian and technology stocks, Q1 market upside could become capped by tariff, inflation, and US Fed leadership risks.</li>
<li>Near-Term uncertainty stemming from central bank changes and geopolitical risks suggests looking for strategic, tactical ideas to collect premium and hedge the broader, bullish 2026 global equities view.</li>
</ul>


Global central banks, including the Fed and BoJ, maintain a cautious but solid economic outlook for 2026, setting the stage for continued long-term equity investment.
Despite early-year outperformance in Asian and technology stocks, Q1 market upside could become capped by tariff, inflation, and US Fed leadership risks.
Near-Term uncertainty stemming from central bank changes and geopolitical risks suggests looking for strategic, tactical ideas to collect premium and hedge the broader, bullish 2026 global equities view.


Global Markets 2026: Why the 'Tariff, Inflation' Ceiling Favors Selling MSCI World Upside

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities is driven by the macro strength of Developed Markets, including US upside and Eurozone resilience, plus corporate governance reforms.</li>
<li>Central bank divergence, FX risks 2026+ may warrant a look at VIX and gold portfolio hedges.</li>
<li>KOSPI 200 led 2025 gains among our selection of indices, highlighting AI alpha from memory chips as another dimension to the global GPU rally.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities is driven by the macro strength of Developed Markets, including US upside and Eurozone resilience, plus corporate governance reforms.
Central bank divergence, FX risks 2026+ may warrant a look at VIX and gold portfolio hedges.
KOSPI 200 led 2025 gains among our selection of indices, highlighting AI alpha from memory chips as another dimension to the global GPU rally.


Global Markets: US Rates, Korean Alpha, and the AI Diversification Thesis

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

<ul>
<li>China’s bank-centric funding model is an under-reported risk that appears to be lost amidst the current rally in Chinese stocks</li>
<li>While it powered China’s investment boom previously, this model now misallocates capital, warehouses property losses on bank balance sheets, blunts PBoC easing, prolongs deflation risks and echoes Japan-style balance-sheet stagnation</li>
<li>Without credible bank clean-up and a shift toward bond, equity and REIT funding, China’s rally risks remaining tactical rather than structural. The current rally does not signal a multi-year bull-run</li>
</ul>


China’s bank-centric funding model is an under-reported risk that appears to be lost amidst the current rally in Chinese stocks
While it powered China’s investment boom previously, this model now misallocates capital, warehouses property losses on bank balance sheets, blunts PBoC easing, prolongs deflation risks and echoes Japan-style balance-sheet stagnation
Without credible bank clean-up and a shift toward bond, equity and REIT funding, China’s rally risks remaining tactical rather than structural. The current rally does not signal a multi-year bull-run


China’s Bank-Centric Funding: An Under-Reported Risk

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Global equities advanced in August, driven by strong demand for technology stocks and expectations of monetary easing.</li><li>The MSCI World Index gained +2.49% MoM, supported by broad-based gains across developed markets, especially the U.S.</li><li>The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+1.22% MoM) also improved, buoyed by positive performance in Chinese equities, which outweighed weakness in India and Taiwan. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global equities advanced in August, driven by strong demand for technology stocks and expectations of monetary easing.The MSCI World Index gained +2.49% MoM, supported by broad-based gains across developed markets, especially the U.S.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+1.22% MoM) also improved, buoyed by positive performance in Chinese equities, which outweighed weakness in India and Taiwan. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Research -  Monthly Equities Review - August 2025

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

The Global Liquidity Cycle

This report looks at the origins, definitions and outlook for Global Liquidity. It is part primer and part prediction. The next peak in Global...

Michael J. Howell

Global Markets 2026: Why the 'Tariff, Inflation' Ceiling Favors Selling MSCI World Upside

Global central banks cautiously optimistic for 2026, but risks like tariffs and inflation could cap market upside. Look for strategic ideas to...

Jay Cameron

Global Markets: US Rates, Korean Alpha, and the AI Diversification Thesis

Equities bullish due to strong Developed Markets, corporate governance reforms, and GPU upside in Asia and US/AI Memory alpha in Korea. CB...

Jay Cameron

China’s Bank-Centric Funding: An Under-Reported Risk

While a bank-centric funding model with a tightly run economy precludes a financial collapse, it prolongs the adjustment cycle. The current rally...

Kok Peng Chan

CardinalStone Research - Monthly Equities Review - August 2025

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+1.22% MoM) also improved, buoyed by positive performance in Chinese equities, which outweighed weakness in India...

CardinalStone

The Global Liquidity Cycle

This report looks at the origins, definitions and outlook for Global Liquidity. It is part primer and part prediction. The next peak in Global...

Michael J. Howell

Global Markets 2026: Why the 'Tariff, Inflation' Ceiling Favors Selling MSCI World Upside

​Global central banks cautiously optimistic for 2026, but risks like tariffs and inflation could cap market upside. Look for strategic ideas to...

Jay Cameron

Global Markets: US Rates, Korean Alpha, and the AI Diversification Thesis

Equities bullish due to strong Developed Markets, corporate governance reforms, and GPU upside in Asia and US/AI Memory alpha in Korea. CB...

Jay Cameron

China’s Bank-Centric Funding: An Under-Reported Risk

While a bank-centric funding model with a tightly run economy precludes a financial collapse, it prolongs the adjustment cycle. The current rally...

Kok Peng Chan

CardinalStone Research - Monthly Equities Review - August 2025

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+1.22% MoM) also improved, buoyed by positive performance in Chinese equities, which outweighed weakness in India...

CardinalStone

Global central banks cautiously optimistic for 2026, but risks like tariffs and inflation could cap market upside. Look for strategic ideas to...