Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China is injecting liquidity into the markets, but ironically, with investors sick and tired of negative returns, much of this liquidity is finding its way everywhere except China.</li>
<li>The downturn in commercial real estate is becoming a global phenomenon. A growing number of companies is grappling with bad real estate loans, leading to a sharp increase in provisions.</li>
<li>The most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals yet another trend that the recession is already behind us.</li>
</ul>


China is injecting liquidity into the markets, but ironically, with investors sick and tired of negative returns, much of this liquidity is finding its way everywhere except China.
The downturn in commercial real estate is becoming a global phenomenon. A growing number of companies is grappling with bad real estate loans, leading to a sharp increase in provisions.
The most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals yet another trend that the recession is already behind us.


The Weekly Market Monitor – How China Is Pushing Stocks Higher Except at Home

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Beyond the official communiqué, Chairman Powell reiterated his dovish stance in his press conference, underscoring the Fed’s intense commitment to achieving a ‘soft landing.</li>
<li>Despite robust GDP growth, the ISM Manufacturing Index already calls for lower interest rates,</li>
<li>With Powell highlighting the current restrictive nature of rates and the likelihood of forthcoming inflation data bolstering the Fed’s confidence, rate cuts could soon be on the horizon. </li>
</ul>


Beyond the official communiqué, Chairman Powell reiterated his dovish stance in his press conference, underscoring the Fed’s intense commitment to achieving a ‘soft landing.
Despite robust GDP growth, the ISM Manufacturing Index already calls for lower interest rates,
With Powell highlighting the current restrictive nature of rates and the likelihood of forthcoming inflation data bolstering the Fed’s confidence, rate cuts could soon be on the horizon. 


Key Insight from the Federal Reserve Meeting: Soft Landing Rules!

<ul>
<li>The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.</li>
<li>Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.</li>
<li>When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!</li>
</ul>


The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.
Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.
When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!


The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.</li>
<li>However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.</li>
<li>The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.
However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.
The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.


Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.</li><li>US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in Europe</li><li>It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in EuropeIt’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

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Key Insight from the Federal Reserve Meeting: Soft Landing Rules!

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The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on last week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

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Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

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Takeaways:– Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds. – US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished...

Steno Research