Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?</li>
<li>China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?</li>
<li>UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.</li>
</ul>


The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?
China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?
UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.


The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed in October 2022.  Cycle set to expand further to a peak in late-2025</li>
<li>
 Federal Reserve liquidity already rising and driven over medium-term by need to monetize mandatory fiscal spending</li>
<li>
 Global Liquidity set to rise by US$12-15 trillion in 2024</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed in October 2022.  Cycle set to expand further to a peak in late-2025

 Federal Reserve liquidity already rising and driven over medium-term by need to monetize mandatory fiscal spending

 Global Liquidity set to rise by US$12-15 trillion in 2024


<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets</li>
<li>The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.</li>
<li>The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets
The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.
The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers


Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

<ul>
<li>US policy makers signal the peak in Fed Funds rates and to imply rates cut cuts as soon as March 2024</li>
<li>
Fed Liquidity has risen by a whopping US$534 billion or 16.6% since the start of 2023</li>
<li>These moves are consistent with our long held view that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 and is expanding towards a new peak in 2025.</li>
</ul>


US policy makers signal the peak in Fed Funds rates and to imply rates cut cuts as soon as March 2024

Fed Liquidity has risen by a whopping US$534 billion or 16.6% since the start of 2023
These moves are consistent with our long held view that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 and is expanding towards a new peak in 2025.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.</li>
<li>The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.</li>
</ul>


China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.
The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

The Weekly Market Monitor! Start your week in financial markets, with some of last week’s biggest surprises, stories and charts.

Jeroen Blokland

Global Liquidity And The US Fed Pivot

What are the prospects for Global Liquidity in 2024? We expect Global Liquidity to expand by a further US$12-15 trillion, following last year’s...

Michael J. Howell

Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight, too long. 2024 will see major ease from US policy-makers. Global Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

The 2024 Liquidity BOOM?

Stealth US easing has pushed Fed Liquidity up by 17% this year. This is consistent with our view that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in...

Michael J. Howell

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

China is throwing more liquidity at its real estate sector to save it. Powell is the new top dove while Europe struggles.

Jeroen Blokland