Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity is already falling from 2021 peaks. Not set to bottom until late-2023</li>
<li>Central Bank tightening is reinforcing this decline. More to come</li>
<li>Ukraine Crisis will not deflect the downtrend. More likely reinforces it</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity is already falling from 2021 peaks. Not set to bottom until late-2023
Central Bank tightening is reinforcing this decline. More to come
Ukraine Crisis will not deflect the downtrend. More likely reinforces it


The Real Issue For Investors Is Less Russia And More About Skidding Global Liquidity

<ul>
<li>Negative #1: World economy fading fast. Shipping weak, Recession on horizon</li>
<li>Negative #2: World Central Banks and US Fed more hawkish</li>
<li>Negative #3: decisive move in Chinese economic policy towards 'stability' not growth</li>
</ul>


Negative #1: World economy fading fast. Shipping weak, Recession on horizon
Negative #2: World Central Banks and US Fed more hawkish
Negative #3: decisive move in Chinese economic policy towards 'stability' not growth


<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity is skidding and forcing risk asset prices lower</li>
<li>70% of World's Central Banks are now running 'tight' monetary policies</li>
<li>
Bond markets may have called this right. Viz the collapse in term premia</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity is skidding and forcing risk asset prices lower
70% of World's Central Banks are now running 'tight' monetary policies

Bond markets may have called this right. Viz the collapse in term premia


<ul>
<li>People’s Bank (PBoC) continues to pull liquidity out of Chinese money markets </li>
<li>Broader index of Chinese monetary conditions set to fall into ‘tight’ regime</li>
<li>Warns of sharper fall in World economy and weaker commodity prices</li>
</ul>


People’s Bank (PBoC) continues to pull liquidity out of Chinese money markets 
Broader index of Chinese monetary conditions set to fall into ‘tight’ regime
Warns of sharper fall in World economy and weaker commodity prices


What Will China’s On-Going Liquidity Squeeze Mean For World Markets in 2022?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Prospects for global growth in 1Q2022 are clouded by a severely contagious Fourth Wave of Covid-19, reflected in a 56% week-on-week rise in new cases to 8.274mn this week. </li>
<li>Asia is less affected. With the exception of Vietnam, ASEAN too has contained the spread of Covid, after becoming the global epicentre in Aug-Sep2021. </li>
<li>With the US and EU the epicentres, regionally-focused movement restrictions will hurt domestic growth prospects in the OECD in 1Q 2022, although trade will likely continue to boom.  </li>
</ul>


Prospects for global growth in 1Q2022 are clouded by a severely contagious Fourth Wave of Covid-19, reflected in a 56% week-on-week rise in new cases to 8.274mn this week. 
Asia is less affected. With the exception of Vietnam, ASEAN too has contained the spread of Covid, after becoming the global epicentre in Aug-Sep2021. 
With the US and EU the epicentres, regionally-focused movement restrictions will hurt domestic growth prospects in the OECD in 1Q 2022, although trade will likely continue to boom.  


4th Global Covid Wave More Contagious but Less Deadly (& Asia Less Affected) So Far

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

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