Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.</li>
<li>Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.</li>
<li>A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.</li>
</ul>


Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.
Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.
A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.


[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>DOUBLE-DIGIT YOY GROWTH BUT RISING COSTS A CONCERN</strong>- 27% of Japanese listed companies reported earnings results last week. In aggregate, the group saw year-on-year trailing-twelve-month (TTM) growth in revenue and operating income of 10.7% and 19.0%, respectively.  The quarter-on-quarter growth rates are, however, showing a declining trend. TTM quarter-on-quarter revenue growth for this group has slowed from 3.4% in the quarter but last to 2.2% and operating income growth has declined from 8.0%…</p>

DOUBLE-DIGIT YOY GROWTH BUT RISING COSTS A CONCERN- 27% of Japanese listed companies reported earnings results last week. In aggregate, the group saw year-on-year trailing-twelve-month (TTM) growth in revenue and operating income of 10.7% and 19.0%, respectively.  The quarter-on-quarter growth rates are, however, showing a declining trend. TTM quarter-on-quarter revenue growth for this group has slowed from 3.4% in the quarter but last to 2.2% and operating income growth has declined from 8.0%…

Japan: Results & Revisions Update - Slowing Momentum Confirmed

<ul>
<li>On 1 April 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> and Rakuten would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/if-rakuten-4755-combines-financial-units-who-wins-and-how-well-it-s-complicated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this</a>. Talks halted 6mos later.</li>
<li>Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.</li>
<li>It's a complicated structure but worth it for Rakuten Bank. Rakuten Bank customer and deposit growth continues higher than the bank industry as a whole. Deposit beta is a question.</li>
</ul>


On 1 April 2024, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and Rakuten would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote this. Talks halted 6mos later.
Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.
It's a complicated structure but worth it for Rakuten Bank. Rakuten Bank customer and deposit growth continues higher than the bank industry as a whole. Deposit beta is a question.


[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - New Fintech Holding Would Be Positive IF Done Right

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

<ul><li>Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.</li><li>Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.</li><li>Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.</li><li>Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? </li></ul>

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? 

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Japan

The Musashino Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank that mainly operates in Saitama Prefecture.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and exchange transactions.  Musashino Bank also provides other financial services including credit cards, leasing & factoring, and computer system development.

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Musashino Bank (8336 JP)

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Japan: Results & Revisions Update - Slowing Momentum Confirmed

DOUBLE-DIGIT YOY GROWTH BUT RISING COSTS A CONCERN- 27% of Japanese listed companies reported earnings results last week. In aggregate, the group...

Campbell Gunn

[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - New Fintech Holding Would Be Positive IF Done Right

Rakuten Bank is the worst-performing listed bank in Japan in the last 11+ months despite strong earnings growth. Everyone else's PER multiple is...

Travis Lundy

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the...

Howard J Klein

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