Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,600+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we go looking for value in Korea beyond memory, weigh SHEIN's long-awaited IPO, and trace how TOPIX's reshuffle could lift small-cap Japanese banks.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,600+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we go looking for value in Korea beyond memory, weigh SHEIN's long-awaited IPO, and trace how TOPIX's reshuffle could lift small-cap Japanese banks.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Korea Beyond Memory, SHEIN's Hong Kong Bow & TOPIX's Tailwind for Banks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hokkoku Financial Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.</li>
<li>The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. </li>
<li>But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.</li>
</ul>


Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.


[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, I published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-the-topix-change-in-oct-2026-part-i-methodology-madness" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:247905" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part I (Methodology Madness)</a> about the TOPIX Methodology Change in October 2026.</li>
<li>TOPIX matters because it is the Japan index with BY FAR the largest amount of passive tracking AUM. Change matters because, well, it does. There will be $80bn+ of flows.</li>
<li>Part II discusses one particular trade which is a kind of a loophole. It has moved already so it is worth watching; it may still be good. It may not.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, I published [Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part I (Methodology Madness) about the TOPIX Methodology Change in October 2026.
TOPIX matters because it is the Japan index with BY FAR the largest amount of passive tracking AUM. Change matters because, well, it does. There will be $80bn+ of flows.
Part II discusses one particular trade which is a kind of a loophole. It has moved already so it is worth watching; it may still be good. It may not.


[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part II (Regional Bank LFR Baskets)

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.</li><li>Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.</li><li>Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.</li><li>Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? </li></ul>

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? 

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Japan

Tomony Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Tokushima Bank and Kagawa Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card and leasing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Tomony Holdings (8600 JP)

Curator's Cut: Korea Beyond Memory, SHEIN's Hong Kong Bow & TOPIX's Tailwind for Banks

Discover names outside memory in Korea, review SHEIN's IPO, and understand TOPIX's impact on small-cap Japanese banks in this fortnightly...

Pranav Rao

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part II (Regional Bank LFR Baskets)

The TOPIX Index Methodology Change in October 2026 coincides with the FFW review for calendar Q1 FY-end companies. It's a big review. My current...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the...

Howard J Klein

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Korea Beyond Memory, SHEIN's Hong Kong Bow & TOPIX's Tailwind for Banks

​Discover names outside memory in Korea, review SHEIN's IPO, and understand TOPIX's impact on small-cap Japanese banks in this fortnightly...

Pranav Rao

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part II (Regional Bank LFR Baskets)

The TOPIX Index Methodology Change in October 2026 coincides with the FFW review for calendar Q1 FY-end companies. It's a big review. My current...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the...

Howard J Klein

Discover names outside memory in Korea, review SHEIN's IPO, and understand TOPIX's impact on small-cap Japanese banks in this fortnightly...