Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a> continued for another week.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.

Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) replaced Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on Friday.
There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US) continued for another week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

<ul>
<li>Halfway through the review period, we see 6 potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> using the current index methodology.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.26% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 24bn. There will be more than 2x ADV to sell on nearly all deletes.</li>
<li>There is a possibility of an index methodology change, but no news for the last 4 months could indicate pushback from users or more stocks added to the F&amp;O market.</li>
</ul>


Halfway through the review period, we see 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.26% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 24bn. There will be more than 2x ADV to sell on nearly all deletes.
There is a possibility of an index methodology change, but no news for the last 4 months could indicate pushback from users or more stocks added to the F&amp;O market.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the <em>next</em> 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.</li>
<li>According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.
According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Loan mix is improving, away from non-INR loans, asset mix is improving with less RIDF bonds, and bank is seeing an expanding LDR.  </li>
<li>Loss loans and doubtful loans are in major decline, they are less important to total NPLs, and still credit costs were high in 1Q24, likely overly conservative.</li>
<li>Credit growth is now at 22.6% YoY from 14.9% YoY one year ago, with consistent acceleration. With just 6% loan share, growth can remain high. </li>
</ul>


Loan mix is improving, away from non-INR loans, asset mix is improving with less RIDF bonds, and bank is seeing an expanding LDR.  
Loss loans and doubtful loans are in major decline, they are less important to total NPLs, and still credit costs were high in 1Q24, likely overly conservative.
Credit growth is now at 22.6% YoY from 14.9% YoY one year ago, with consistent acceleration. With just 6% loan share, growth can remain high. 


Axis Bank - Loan Mix Improving Dramatically | Strong ALM | Credit Costs Likely to Narrow Sharply

<ul>
<li>Shriram Finance (formerly Shriram Transport Finance) now includes two major subsidiaries in its numbers, in the listed entity, driving up AUM, ROA and net profit. </li>
<li>There is strong latent demand in India for pre-owned commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, where SHTF focuses, with a long track record of good profit, ROA, NIM. </li>
<li>Underwriting seems strong given stage 3 and stage 2 loan data, and with funding cost improvements, from distribution of liabilities, good scope for profit growth, ROA, NIM.</li>
</ul>


Shriram Finance (formerly Shriram Transport Finance) now includes two major subsidiaries in its numbers, in the listed entity, driving up AUM, ROA and net profit. 
There is strong latent demand in India for pre-owned commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, where SHTF focuses, with a long track record of good profit, ROA, NIM. 
Underwriting seems strong given stage 3 and stage 2 loan data, and with funding cost improvements, from distribution of liabilities, good scope for profit growth, ROA, NIM.


Shriram Finance - Strong Latent Demand, ROA 3.08% from 2.70%, Stage 2 Loans -14%, +25% Profit 1Q24

India

Muthoot Finance Ltd. is a gold financing company. The Company provides personal and business loans secured by gold jewellery, or Gold Loans primarily to individuals who possess gold jewelry but can't access formal credit lines.

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Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover

There should be 6 changes to the NEXT50 in March. NSE Indices has yet to announce next steps in the consultation that will limit membership to FnO...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

If BHE gets added to NIFTY 50, there could be 10x 3m average daily deliverable volume to buy. This can be viewed as a catalyst to help BHE...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Axis Bank - Loan Mix Improving Dramatically | Strong ALM | Credit Costs Likely to Narrow Sharply

LDR is improving dramatically, loan mix is better, less low-yield bonds supports NIM. Loss and doubtful loans are less important, so credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Shriram Finance - Strong Latent Demand, ROA 3.08% from 2.70%, Stage 2 Loans -14%, +25% Profit 1Q24

Shriram Finance now includes 2 subsidiaries in earnings, and assets. Its ROA is up to 3.08% from 2.70% YoY in 1Q24. Stage 2 loans -14% YoY can mean...

Daniel Tabbush

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