Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

The majority of major developed and Emerging Market currencies have contnued to trade in narrow ranges versus the US Dollar in the past three weeks. The five narrowest ranges (&lt;1.5%) have all been recorded by Asian currencies. We attribute this to the willingness and ability of Asian central banks to keep their currencies broadly aligned with the currencies of their main trading partners – namely the Chinese Renminbi and US Dollar - which have been particularly stable in recent weeks.27 of these 32 major currencies have depreciated or appreciated by 2.5% or less against the US Dollar over this period.On the surface it would seem that markets, faced with acute uncertainty, are keen to fade any material currency moves.However, half of these 32 major currencies were, as of yesterday’s close of business, at or testing the extremes of their admittedly (in most cases) narrow ranges versus the US Dollar, with the Brazilian Real within touching distance of its record low (hit on 8th May) and conversely the Philippines Peso at a multi-year high.  The question is which of these currencies is likely to extend their gains/or losses and/or potentially break out of its recent ranges.Near-term we see downside risks to the Chinese Renminbi and Brazilian Real versus the US Dollar and Swiss Franc.

The majority of major developed and Emerging Market currencies have contnued to trade in narrow ranges versus the US Dollar in the past three weeks. The five narrowest ranges (&lt;1.5%) have all been recorded by Asian currencies. We attribute this to the willingness and ability of Asian central banks to keep their currencies broadly aligned with the currencies of their main trading partners – namely the Chinese Renminbi and US Dollar - which have been particularly stable in recent weeks.27 of these 32 major currencies have depreciated or appreciated by 2.5% or less against the US Dollar over this period.On the surface it would seem that markets, faced with acute uncertainty, are keen to fade any material currency moves.However, half of these 32 major currencies were, as of yesterday’s close of business, at or testing the extremes of their admittedly (in most cases) narrow ranges versus the US Dollar, with the Brazilian Real within touching distance of its record low (hit on 8th May) and conversely the Philippines Peso at a multi-year high.  The question is which of these currencies is likely to extend their gains/or losses and/or potentially break out of its recent ranges.Near-term we see downside risks to the Chinese Renminbi and Brazilian Real versus the US Dollar and Swiss Franc.

Conservative FX Markets Testing (Some) Extremes

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22829" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22829:1">MYR (USDMYR CURNCY)</a> continues to exhibit a strong uptrend that supports our macro view toward 4.25 in line with our original insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/myr-4-08-pivot-on-the-way-to-4-25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20202">MYR 4.08 Pivot on the Way to 4.25</a>.Asian FX to come under further pressure as weakness spills over from EM FX with increasing contagion risk that would be accompanied by higher momentum dollar breakouts.USD/MYR sliced through 4.10 and 4.13 pivot points with ease, suggesting upside momentum remains healthy after clearing resistance in an impulsive manner.Upside beyond MYR 4.25 exits if we see the DXY push through 98. We touch on the next barrier to challenge.

MYR (USDMYR CURNCY) continues to exhibit a strong uptrend that supports our macro view toward 4.25 in line with our original insight MYR 4.08 Pivot on the Way to 4.25.Asian FX to come under further pressure as weakness spills over from EM FX with increasing contagion risk that would be accompanied by higher momentum dollar breakouts.USD/MYR sliced through 4.10 and 4.13 pivot points with ease, suggesting upside momentum remains healthy after clearing resistance in an impulsive manner.Upside beyond MYR 4.25 exits if we see the DXY push through 98. We touch on the next barrier to challenge.

USD/MYR is one of the last currencies to succumb to USD strength in Asia, per our bullish USD domino call, after registering a micro double bottom but also a macro dual low from lows back in early 2016 setting a firm base. We outline tactical rally targets as well as longer term strategic pivot levels that would warn of a test of the 4.50 dual highs. It is the weekly MACD cycle that shows a very high confidence structure that points to a macro move higher in the USD.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/051/887/original/MALAY%20FX.png?1525927553" data-smartkarma-image-id="51887"></figure>Weekly MACD is not only…

USD/MYR is one of the last currencies to succumb to USD strength in Asia, per our bullish USD domino call, after registering a micro double bottom but also a macro dual low from lows back in early 2016 setting a firm base. We outline tactical rally targets as well as longer term strategic pivot levels that would warn of a test of the 4.50 dual highs. It is the weekly MACD cycle that shows a very high confidence structure that points to a macro move higher in the USD.Weekly MACD is not only…

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Malaysian outright swaps are showing potential for further rise.Mathematical indicators (RSI, Moving Average) are all oriented to the upside.Over the 3-6 months to come:<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22829" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22829:1">MYR (USDMYR CURNCY)</a> 5y Malaysian swap NDRIS (MRSWNI5) is expected to be paid above 3,90% max 3,68% towards 4,53% even 4,80%. 4,20% intermediate resistance below which some range should be taking place</li></ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/948/original/MRSWNI5%20Curncy%20%28MYR%20SWAP%20NDIRS%20%20%202018-02-05%2021-02-18.png?1519035865" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44948"></figure><ul><li>In parallel, the 1-5 curve is showing the same kind of pattern, with a potentially anchored front end part of the curve and further…</li></ul>

Malaysian outright swaps are showing potential for further rise.Mathematical indicators (RSI, Moving Average) are all oriented to the upside.Over the 3-6 months to come:
MYR (USDMYR CURNCY) 5y Malaysian swap NDRIS (MRSWNI5) is expected to be paid above 3,90% max 3,68% towards 4,53% even 4,80%. 4,20% intermediate resistance below which some range should be taking placeIn parallel, the 1-5 curve is showing the same kind of pattern, with a potentially anchored front end part of the curve and further…

Bearish Steepening on the Malaysian 1-5 Swap Curve

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

Malaysia

The Malaysian ringgit is the official currency of the Federation of Malaysia. 

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MYR (USDMYR CURNCY)

Conservative FX Markets Testing (Some) Extremes

The majority of major developed and Emerging Market currencies have contnued to trade in narrow ranges versus the US Dollar in the past three...

Olivier Desbarres

MYR on Track to Reach 4.25

MYR (USDMYR CURNCY) continues to exhibit a strong uptrend that supports our macro view toward 4.25 in line with our original insight MYR 4.08 Pivot...

Thomas Schroeder

MYR 4.08 Pivot on the Way to 4.25

USD/MYR is one of the last currencies to succumb to USD strength in Asia, per our bullish USD domino call, after registering a micro double bottom...

Thomas Schroeder

Bearish Steepening on the Malaysian 1-5 Swap Curve

Malaysian outright swaps are showing potential for further rise.Mathematical indicators (RSI, Moving Average) are all oriented to the upside.Over...

Guillaume Coutant

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook. ...

Greg Gibbs

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