Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The BIS's estimates of real effective exchange rates (REERs) have long been the gold standard for longer-run FX valuation. Our analysis of the REERs for 12 major emerging markets throws up some key findings for Asian investors. After Mexico, India's REER has seen the strongest appreciation momentum over the last 6 months. These gains leave India's REER looking easily the most expensive among our universe. At the other end of the spectrum, Turkey and Malaysia stand out as having the cheapest</strong>…</p></div>

The BIS's estimates of real effective exchange rates (REERs) have long been the gold standard for longer-run FX valuation. Our analysis of the REERs for 12 major emerging markets throws up some key findings for Asian investors. After Mexico, India's REER has seen the strongest appreciation momentum over the last 6 months. These gains leave India's REER looking easily the most expensive among our universe. At the other end of the spectrum, Turkey and Malaysia stand out as having the cheapest…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.</em></p>

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div>
<strong>Chartonics FX webcast </strong>Wednesday 10 May 2017</div><div><strong>Weaker EM FX ahead of a June USD low/inflection</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp1" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp1&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1494540912657000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGp90hU_MzrI0a3xmJFeSL0mLPRWg">https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp1</a></strong>12:59 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/025/816/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1494456412" data-smartkarma-image-id="25816"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
</div><div>
<strong>DXY </strong>– Per expectations we did see the Euro spike briefly above 1.10 and then fade (case of sell the fact) lending support to the DXY to rally and close the 99.65 gap. We are still in a state of resolution regarding DXY 99 support with pivot resistance at 100. DXY RSI support and bull divergence is compelling but needs…</div>


Chartonics FX webcast Wednesday 10 May 2017Weaker EM FX ahead of a June USD low/inflectionTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp112:59 min.
FX webcast

DXY – Per expectations we did see the Euro spike briefly above 1.10 and then fade (case of sell the fact) lending support to the DXY to rally and close the 99.65 gap. We are still in a state of resolution regarding DXY 99 support with pivot resistance at 100. DXY RSI support and bull divergence is compelling but needs…

<div>
<strong>Chartonics FX weekly   </strong>Thursday 4 May 2017</div><div><strong>The Le Pin pattern</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA</a> </strong>13:33 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/025/495/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1493874655" data-smartkarma-image-id="25495"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
<p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY 99 support has held with some noise and formed a “Le Pin” congestion pattern with a binary outcome due Monday. Ideally, we see the USD bounce to close the gap near 99.50. US yields starting to play a bigger role given increased odds of a June Fed rate hike but will be overshadowed by the French election move. We do feel a Macron win is for…</p>
</div>


Chartonics FX weekly   Thursday 4 May 2017The Le Pin patternTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA 13:33 min.
FX webcast
DXY – DXY 99 support has held with some noise and formed a “Le Pin” congestion pattern with a binary outcome due Monday. Ideally, we see the USD bounce to close the gap near 99.50. US yields starting to play a bigger role given increased odds of a June Fed rate hike but will be overshadowed by the French election move. We do feel a Macron win is for…


<div><strong>Chartonics FX webcast</strong></div><div>Wednesday 26 April 2017</div><div><strong>DXY 99 bust</strong></div><div>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC</a> </strong>12:25 min</div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/998/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1493184186" data-smartkarma-image-id="24998"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
</div><div>
<strong>DXY </strong>– DXY 99 support under threat. Prefer an uptick in the DXY to re set long Euro. Post-election euphoria needs a breather and should try to close the DXY gap at 99.50. Have implemented more USD short bets in Asian FX, BRL and CAD. Remain mixed on Sterling and bullish the Euro on a give back. Overall, we see increased downside pressure to break the 99…</div>

Chartonics FX webcastWednesday 26 April 2017DXY 99 bustTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC 12:25 min
FX webcast

DXY – DXY 99 support under threat. Prefer an uptick in the DXY to re set long Euro. Post-election euphoria needs a breather and should try to close the DXY gap at 99.50. Have implemented more USD short bets in Asian FX, BRL and CAD. Remain mixed on Sterling and bullish the Euro on a give back. Overall, we see increased downside pressure to break the 99…

Malaysia

The Malaysian ringgit is the official currency of the Federation of Malaysia. 

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Emerging Markets: REER View Mirror

The BIS's estimates of real effective exchange rates (REERs) have long been the gold standard for longer-run FX valuation. Our analysis of the...

Richard Iley

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook. ...

Greg Gibbs

Weaker EM FX with Euro Filling the Gap

Chartonics FX webcast Wednesday 10 May 2017Weaker EM FX ahead of a June USD low/inflectionTo view click on this link:...

Thomas Schroeder

The Le Pin Pattern

Chartonics FX weekly Thursday 4 May 2017The Le Pin patternTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA 13:33 min. DXY –...

Thomas Schroeder

DXY 99 Bust

Chartonics FX webcastWednesday 26 April 2017DXY 99 bustTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC 12:25 min DXY – DXY 99...

Thomas Schroeder

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