Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.</li>
<li>We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.</li>
<li>This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities</li>
</ul>


Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.
We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.
This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities


Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.</span></li><li>We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?</li><li>We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.</li></ul></div></form></div></div>

To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian rupiah has outperformed most EM currencies, particularly other Asian currencies, and has done so with low volatility in contrast with the rising volatility of the EM FX index.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, headwinds may be appearing with the interest-rate differential working against the currency as the Fed starts raising rates and higher inflation leading to lower real rates.</li>
<li>While the rise in commodity prices is generating trade surpluses for now, the current account may turn negative from positive with a rise in imports accompanying the economy's reopening.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian rupiah has outperformed most EM currencies, particularly other Asian currencies, and has done so with low volatility in contrast with the rising volatility of the EM FX index.
Looking ahead, headwinds may be appearing with the interest-rate differential working against the currency as the Fed starts raising rates and higher inflation leading to lower real rates.
While the rise in commodity prices is generating trade surpluses for now, the current account may turn negative from positive with a rise in imports accompanying the economy's reopening.


Indonesian Rupiah Shines in Volatile Times

<ul>
<li>I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which currencies may offer opportunities this year.</li>
<li>The currencies to track this year for opportunities to buy are Chilean peso and Peruvian sol, and to sell are Colombian peso and South African rand. </li>
<li>Among currencies that already look appealing to buy are the Indian rupee and the Thai baht, while the Chinese yuan and the Czech koruna appear expensive.</li>
</ul>


I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which currencies may offer opportunities this year.
The currencies to track this year for opportunities to buy are Chilean peso and Peruvian sol, and to sell are Colombian peso and South African rand. 
Among currencies that already look appealing to buy are the Indian rupee and the Thai baht, while the Chinese yuan and the Czech koruna appear expensive.


Not All Winners Are Equal: 2021 EM FX Outliers and Implications for 2022

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

INR (USDINR CURNCY)

EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?

Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from...

Steno Research

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Indonesian Rupiah Shines in Volatile Times

The Indonesian rupiah has outperformed most other EM currencies but headwinds may be appearing for the currency as the Fed starts raising rates and...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Not All Winners Are Equal: 2021 EM FX Outliers and Implications for 2022

I explore the 2021 winners and losers among EM currencies, leading into the discussion on which of these performances were appropriate and which...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA