Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.</li><li>Operating under an asset-light assembler business model in an industry marked by consolidation and significant barriers to entry, Comer Industries has consistently delivered impressive returns on capital, boasting a ROCE exceeding 20% for the past three years.</li><li>Despite its strong performance, the company’s shares trade at a normalized 12.4% free cash flow yield and a 7.2 EV/EBIT, considerably lower than industry peers.</li></ul>

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.Operating under an asset-light assembler business model in an industry marked by consolidation and significant barriers to entry, Comer Industries has consistently delivered impressive returns on capital, boasting a ROCE exceeding 20% for the past three years.Despite its strong performance, the company’s shares trade at a normalized 12.4% free cash flow yield and a 7.2 EV/EBIT, considerably lower than industry peers.

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Equity Capital Markets

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a> in an overseas placement. </li>
<li>This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.</li>
<li>Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. </li>
</ul>


Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) in an overseas placement. 
This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.
Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. 


Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In February 2021 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nabtesco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13176:1" rel="noopener">Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP)</a> announced it would sell half of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a> to concentrate on its own products and growth. </li>
<li>It was a not-very-well-held secret Nabtesco had invested wanting to own HDS. HDS didn't want to be owned. Eventually Nabtesco gave up. So they sold over time into low float.</li>
<li>Now they are letting go of the other half. Sale structure means ongoing pressure.</li>
</ul>


In February 2021 Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP) announced it would sell half of its stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) to concentrate on its own products and growth. 
It was a not-very-well-held secret Nabtesco had invested wanting to own HDS. HDS didn't want to be owned. Eventually Nabtesco gave up. So they sold over time into low float.
Now they are letting go of the other half. Sale structure means ongoing pressure.


Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive - The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue

Japan

Nabtesco Corporation manufactures Aircraft and Hydraulic products, Precision equipment, and transportation equipment. The Company's products include landing gear system for aircrafts, railroad vehicle brake system, and precision reduction gears for industrial robots.

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Nabtesco (6268 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

The LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 3.1% in December 2024. The HIGH and MED potential ADDs could continue to outperform the HIGH and MED...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Comer Industries : Unveiling a Hidden Champion with a Sustainable 12% Free Cashflow Yield

Comer Industries, an Italian family-owned company, specializes in producing mission-critical components for agricultural and construction vehicles.

Contrarian Cashflows

Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

Toyota is selling a US$125mm stake in Harmonic Drive Systems. That's 4.55%. Not overwhelming but it will increase the ownership of the target...

Travis Lundy

Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive - The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue

Nabtesco (6268) is selling the other half of its original stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324). The sale is a big part of Real World Float. HDS...

Travis Lundy

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