Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isoenergy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43145:1" rel="noopener">IsoEnergy (ISO CN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ur-energy-inc-845bf87b-f51b-4d57-8b7e-f6696dc23213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39270:1" rel="noopener">Ur-Energy (URG US)</a> in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

IsoEnergy (ISO CN) will replace Ur-Energy (URG US) in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in <a href="https://skr.ma/hkBPx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Uranium: Fuelling Fears</a>. </li>
<li>The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion. </li>
<li>A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines "as deposits are exhausted".</li>
</ul>


Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in Uranium: Fuelling Fears. 
The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion. 
A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines "as deposits are exhausted".


Uranium's Shortfall And Nuclear Viability

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE US) and Atha Energy Corp (ATHA CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.36bn.</li>
<li>There are only 3 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.
Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE US) and Atha Energy Corp (ATHA CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.36bn.
There are only 3 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$1.4bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">Cgn Mining (1164 HK)</a> is an add to both indices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endesa-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21264:1" rel="noopener">Endesa SA</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

Kazakhstan

NAC Kazatomprom JSC produces and markets minerals. The Company specializes in natural uranium production. NAC Kazatomprom also imports and exports uranium compounds, nuclear power plant fuel, and uranium components. NAC Kazatomprom serves customers worldwide.

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NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI)

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

IsoEnergy will replace Ur-Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Uranium's Shortfall And Nuclear Viability

A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, coupled with a material...

David Blennerhassett

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$1.4bn Trade

There are 2 adds and capping changes in July for an estimated one-way turnover of 16.3% and a round-trip trade of US$1.4bn. Only 3 days to...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

CGN Mining is a double add, while Endesa and enCore Energy are deletes. Estimated net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m.

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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