Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. </li>
<li>For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. </li>
<li>Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. </li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. 
For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. 
Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. 


TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2022 (Pre-Event)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This should come as no surprise. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagoya-railroad-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8652:1" rel="noopener">Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP)</a> is buying out minorities in logistics unit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meitetsu-transport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1475:1" rel="noopener">Meitetsu Transport (9077 JP)</a>.  </li>
<li>Given the shareholder structure, this can be done and squeezed out with not a single share tendered, but it's ugly. </li>
<li>Logistics REITs trade at 1.3-1.5x book. This is being done at 0.55x book where just 1.0x book for the warehouse assets would be more than the EV at Takeover Price.</li>
</ul>


This should come as no surprise. Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP) is buying out minorities in logistics unit Meitetsu Transport (9077 JP).  
Given the shareholder structure, this can be done and squeezed out with not a single share tendered, but it's ugly. 
Logistics REITs trade at 1.3-1.5x book. This is being done at 0.55x book where just 1.0x book for the warehouse assets would be more than the EV at Takeover Price.


Meitetsu Transport (9077) Takeover - Parent "Stealing" Logistics Assets at 0.55x Book

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12077:1" rel="noopener">West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)</a>  is one of the first three listed JR companies (along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13520:1" rel="noopener">Central Japan Railway Co (9022 JP)</a>) and was always the smallest, in size and investor interest, until <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyushu-railway-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23609:1" rel="noopener">Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP)</a> came along. JR West has "always" traded at a lower EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and PER than a basket of its peers. For a long time that was due to lower ROAs and higher debt/EBITDA. Now ROAs have basically matched the basket of peers and so pre and post-covid, ROEs looked OK. Covid hit hard. Inbound tourism fell, business travel fell, commuting use fell, costs didn't. Gross margins which had been 22-27% for most of the last 20 years fell below zero. Revenues fell by 40%. Four Zero Percent. That is huge for a transport utility.  This is the same story for all the rails, but more for some than others.   The stock is down 50% from late 2019 highs. The question is whether that is enough. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/967/original/Screenshot+2021-09-05+at+10.36.27+AM.png?1630809405" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227967"></figure></section>Last week on 1 September, the company <a href="https://www.westjr.co.jp/global/en/ir/news/2022/pdf/en_20210901.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an offering of 51+mm shares including greenshoe, split 40/60 international/domestic. That is about 40 days volume and after the stock fell 15%, is worth about ¥260bn. The company has a large number of retail shareholders, and a very heavy passive and cross-holding ownership. It has a relatively low active institutional ownership - domestic or foreign. With the dividend down 40+% it still yields ~2% because of where the stock has fallen. Even better for some potential holders, the kabunushi yutai yield is 5+%, and up to 9% if one optimises (and rides the shinkansen, stays in hotels, and eats at restaurants in hotels). That may make it a selling point to some, but institutional investors don't get that benefit, so that aspect alone may not get all of the deal sold.There is an interesting story of Historical Cheapness vs Supply vs Benefits along with large passive ownership and decent-to-large passive demand for the offering. More below the fold.

West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)  is one of the first three listed JR companies (along with East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) and Central Japan Railway Co (9022 JP)) and was always the smallest, in size and investor interest, until Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) came along. JR West has "always" traded at a lower EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and PER than a basket of its peers. For a long time that was due to lower ROAs and higher debt/EBITDA. Now ROAs have basically matched the basket of peers and so pre and post-covid, ROEs looked OK. Covid hit hard. Inbound tourism fell, business travel fell, commuting use fell, costs didn't. Gross margins which had been 22-27% for most of the last 20 years fell below zero. Revenues fell by 40%. Four Zero Percent. That is huge for a transport utility.  This is the same story for all the rails, but more for some than others.   The stock is down 50% from late 2019 highs. The question is whether that is enough. Last week on 1 September, the company announced an offering of 51+mm shares including greenshoe, split 40/60 international/domestic. That is about 40 days volume and after the stock fell 15%, is worth about ¥260bn. The company has a large number of retail shareholders, and a very heavy passive and cross-holding ownership. It has a relatively low active institutional ownership - domestic or foreign. With the dividend down 40+% it still yields ~2% because of where the stock has fallen. Even better for some potential holders, the kabunushi yutai yield is 5+%, and up to 9% if one optimises (and rides the shinkansen, stays in hotels, and eats at restaurants in hotels). That may make it a selling point to some, but institutional investors don't get that benefit, so that aspect alone may not get all of the deal sold.There is an interesting story of Historical Cheapness vs Supply vs Benefits along with large passive ownership and decent-to-large passive demand for the offering. More below the fold. 

JR West (9021 JP) Offering - Supply Vs Yutai+Passive Demand

Japan

Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd. mainly provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Chubu area.  The Company also leases and sells real estate and operates leisure-related businesses such as department stores, hotels, and travel agents.

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Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP)

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2022 (Pre-Event)

Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. This situation opens up interesting...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Meitetsu Transport (9077) Takeover - Parent "Stealing" Logistics Assets at 0.55x Book

Meitetsu (9048) is taking out logistics subsidiary Meitetsu Transport (9077) at the wrong price. But it will probably get away with it.

Travis Lundy

JR West (9021 JP) Offering - Supply Vs Yutai+Passive Demand

JR West surprised the market with an equity offering last Wednesday. It is JPY 260bn or so at current price and represents more than 20% EPS...

Travis Lundy

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