Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.</li>
<li>Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.</li>
<li>We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.</li>
</ul>


There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.
Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.
We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.


Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.</li>
<li>Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.</li>
<li>Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.
Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.
Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corporation manufactures and markets printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates.

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Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan rebounded strongly last week alongside Nvidia and U.S. tech. This week will be another major earnings week. Apple's edge AI for user privacy...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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