Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.</li>
<li>Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.</li>
<li>We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.</li>
</ul>


There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.
Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.
We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.


Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain</li>
<li>TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA's Smooth Transition to GB300</li>
<li>NVIDIA's Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA's Smooth Transition to GB300
NVIDIA's Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem


NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 26th. The aggregated holding was USD1,269.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD18mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, TSMC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 26th. The aggregated holding was USD1,269.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD18mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, TSMC.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 26th): MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Wistron, Quanta Computer

Taiwan

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corporation manufactures and markets printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates.

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Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT)

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 26th): MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Wistron, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek (2454 TT), Hon Hai Precision (2317 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

​NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 26th): MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Wistron, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek (2454 TT), Hon Hai Precision (2317 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.