Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/compeq-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9306:1" rel="noopener">Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT)</a> is up 207% this year and the higher market cap and free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in May.</li>
<li>Despite the big runup, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/compeq-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9306:1" rel="noopener">Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT)</a> trades in line with the mean and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.</li>
<li>While there has been big positioning recently, strong momentum, average valuations and a risk-on environment could take the stock higher from here in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT) is up 207% this year and the higher market cap and free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in May.
Despite the big runup, Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT) trades in line with the mean and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.
While there has been big positioning recently, strong momentum, average valuations and a risk-on environment could take the stock higher from here in the short-term.


Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT): Strong Momentum, Positioning & Global Index Inclusion

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD1,593.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD6,083mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital Components.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD1,593.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD6,083mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital Components.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 2nd): TSMC, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 27th. The aggregated holding was USD1,623.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,369mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Compeq Manufacturing, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, King Yuan Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 27th. The aggregated holding was USD1,623.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,369mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Compeq Manufacturing, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, King Yuan Electronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 27th): TSMC, Compeq Manufacturing, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision

Taiwan

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corporation manufactures and markets printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates.

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Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT)

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT): Strong Momentum, Positioning & Global Index Inclusion

Compeq Mfg is up 207% this year and should be added to a global index in May. Shorts have ticked up and positioning is higher than peers. Strong...

Brian Freitas

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 2nd): TSMC, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, Hon Hai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 27th): TSMC, Compeq Manufacturing, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Compeq Manufacturing, MediaTek, Hon Hai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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