Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time</li>
<li>Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter </li>
<li>We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time
Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter 
We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. 


Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to a global index in August will be announced pre-market open Thursday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 August.</li>
<li>The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 1, 2 and 3 months but near-term performance has been far from awesome due to the momentum unwind.</li>
</ul>


The changes to a global index in August will be announced pre-market open Thursday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 August.
The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 1, 2 and 3 months but near-term performance has been far from awesome due to the momentum unwind.


Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.</li>
<li>It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. </li>
<li>Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.</li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.
It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. 
Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>US Eyes New AI Chip Restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand</li>
<li>Chip and AI Boom Driving Taiwan's Offshore Wind Expansion -- Local Stocks to Watch</li>
<li>China Set to Become World’s Largest Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030 -- But One Needs to Consider Leading Edge Capacity vs. Mature Capacity</li>
</ul>


US Eyes New AI Chip Restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand
Chip and AI Boom Driving Taiwan's Offshore Wind Expansion -- Local Stocks to Watch
China Set to Become World’s Largest Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030 -- But One Needs to Consider Leading Edge Capacity vs. Mature Capacity


Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan's AI Infrastructure Push

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Tracking monthly revenues of Taiwan semiconductor companies helps us identify key trends mid-quarter. Initially we tracked the MoM revenue changes....

William Keating

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

The global index changes were announced using D1 as the cutoff. 99% hit rate across Asia Pacific, so no surprises. Big price changes in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan's AI Infrastructure Push

US considering new AI chip restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand, Taiwan's offshore wind expansion driven by chip and AI boom, Intel should invest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Tracking monthly revenues of Taiwan semiconductor companies helps us identify key trends mid-quarter. Initially we tracked the MoM revenue changes....

William Keating

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

The global index changes were announced using D1 as the cutoff. 99% hit rate across Asia Pacific, so no surprises. Big price changes in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan's AI Infrastructure Push

​US considering new AI chip restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand, Taiwan's offshore wind expansion driven by chip and AI boom, Intel should invest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US considering new AI chip restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand, Taiwan's offshore wind expansion driven by chip and AI boom, Intel should invest...