Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>US bans high end chip sales to China, Nvidia shares sink in reaction, as do Nvida suppliers and the overall sector.</li>
<li>Broadcom's fiscal Q3 results beat expectations and its optimistic outlook bucks the industry trend.</li>
<li>Yulon motors soars 9%; its JV with Hon Hai has received 10,000 EV pre-orders in two days.</li>
</ul>


US bans high end chip sales to China, Nvidia shares sink in reaction, as do Nvida suppliers and the overall sector.
Broadcom's fiscal Q3 results beat expectations and its optimistic outlook bucks the industry trend.
Yulon motors soars 9%; its JV with Hon Hai has received 10,000 EV pre-orders in two days.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: More Nvidia Issues, Broadcom Surprises, Yulon Soars

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech is trading at one of the cheapest valuations in history, even when compared to past downturns, and has over 50% of its market cap as net cash.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends.</li>
<li>The risk to the Long/Short pair could be relative product mix performance, but we believe other factors make up for this.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech is trading at one of the cheapest valuations in history, even when compared to past downturns, and has over 50% of its market cap as net cash.
Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends.
The risk to the Long/Short pair could be relative product mix performance, but we believe other factors make up for this.


Chips Cycle Long/Short: Long Nanya Tech Vs. Short Winbond

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology has warned of a downturn that could last to the end of the year. This follows reports of procurement delays in response to excess inventory at Samsung.</li>
<li>Inflation, the Fed's attempt to kill it with higher interest rates, and the growing risk of recession now threaten not only Tokyo Electron but the entire semiconductor supply chain.</li>
<li>Record capital spending plans should be fully discounted. Potential delays and cutbacks now put a burden of uncertainty on the sector.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology has warned of a downturn that could last to the end of the year. This follows reports of procurement delays in response to excess inventory at Samsung.
Inflation, the Fed's attempt to kill it with higher interest rates, and the growing risk of recession now threaten not only Tokyo Electron but the entire semiconductor supply chain.
Record capital spending plans should be fully discounted. Potential delays and cutbacks now put a burden of uncertainty on the sector.


Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. / Equity Bottom-Up

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (ROIC US)

<ul><li>Say that we have an industry selling a commodity and we want to figure out how above average returns can be generated.</li><li>Our starting point is almost perfect competition. </li><li>We cannot create a brand, a differentiated product/service, a monopoly, a cartel or cheat.</li></ul>

Say that we have an industry selling a commodity and we want to figure out how above average returns can be generated.Our starting point is almost perfect competition. We cannot create a brand, a differentiated product/service, a monopoly, a cartel or cheat.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

<p>We maintain NEUTRAL on DRAM price corrections. As economies have reopened and caused lower expected demand for consumer PCs and Chromebooks, related OEM vendors’ tight supply has eased, leading to lower prices of standard memory units. We expect this round of DRAM price corrections to persist into 1H22. Maintain NEUTRAL. </p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We maintain NEUTRAL on DRAM price corrections. As economies have reopened and caused lower expected demand for consumer PCs and Chromebooks, related OEM vendors’ tight supply has eased, leading to lower prices of standard memory units. We expect this round of DRAM price corrections to persist into 1H22. Maintain NEUTRAL. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nanya Technology (2408 TT, NEUTRAL, NTD63.70) 

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: More Nvidia Issues, Broadcom Surprises, Yulon Soars

Nvidia shares sink in reaction to US banning high-end chip sales to China, Taiwan's Nvida suppliers and the overall sector fall as well. Broadcom...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Chips Cycle Long/Short: Long Nanya Tech Vs. Short Winbond

Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends. It's at the cheapest valuation in its history.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Nanya warning of a downturn follows excess inventory report from Samsung. Even smartphone and data center demand at risk. End of the super cycle...

Scott Foster

Earning excess returns in commodities

Say that we have an industry selling a commodity and we want to figure out how above average returns can be generated. Our starting point is almost...

Turtles all the way down

Nanya Technology (2408 TT, NEUTRAL, NTD63.70)

We maintain NEUTRAL on DRAM price corrections. As economies have reopened and caused lower expected demand for consumer PCs and Chromebooks,...

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