Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Global Bond Yields and the Dollar continue their move higher</li>
<li>Nasdaq prints new highs while weakness lurks beneath the surface</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Global Bond Yields and the Dollar continue their move higher
Nasdaq prints new highs while weakness lurks beneath the surface


Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.</li>
<li>For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.</li>
<li>Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.</li>
</ul>


Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.
For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.
Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.


Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets</li>
<li>The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change - expect more volatility</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets
The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change - expect more volatility


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Resumption of full-scale war last week has been followed by a US pause. But Iran has widened the conflict via proxies in Yemen and Iraq. Hormuz Strait fees are likely. </li>
<li>Hezbollah is isolated in Lebanon, where the official government and Israel's interests converge. Houthis don't control Bab al-Mandab, but can threaten passage near it. Iran therefore holds the keys. </li>
<li>Iran-Oman deal on Hormuz Straits will be interim positive. But the US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues is wide. US will need another major attack on Iran to change Iran's calculus. </li>
</ul>


Resumption of full-scale war last week has been followed by a US pause. But Iran has widened the conflict via proxies in Yemen and Iraq. Hormuz Strait fees are likely. 
Hezbollah is isolated in Lebanon, where the official government and Israel's interests converge. Houthis don't control Bab al-Mandab, but can threaten passage near it. Iran therefore holds the keys. 
Iran-Oman deal on Hormuz Straits will be interim positive. But the US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues is wide. US will need another major attack on Iran to change Iran's calculus. 


US-Iran War Resumes Amid Negotiations: Key Problem Still the Nuclear Stalemate

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Oil price rise is pushing government bond yields higher globally, signaling the next inflationary wave has started</li>
<li>Precious Metals and miners rally despite higher yields and a strong Dollar- a positive divergence</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Oil price rise is pushing government bond yields higher globally, signaling the next inflationary wave has started
Precious Metals and miners rally despite higher yields and a strong Dollar- a positive divergence


United States

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

NASDAQ Composite Index (CCMP INDEX)

Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the breakout in bond yields and the dollar, which is...

Rikki Malik

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

Overview #77 – Burning Down the House

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. More of the same - higher oil, higher yields, and the JPY finally...

Rikki Malik

US-Iran War Resumes Amid Negotiations: Key Problem Still the Nuclear Stalemate

US pauses after resumed war. Iran widens conflict via proxies in Yemen/Iraq, but holds key in Bab al-Mandab. Wide US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #70 - Choke Points

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent evidence & mkt reaction to a second inflationary...

Rikki Malik

Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the breakout in bond yields and the dollar, which is...

Rikki Malik

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

Overview #77 – Burning Down the House

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. More of the same - higher oil, higher yields, and the JPY finally...

Rikki Malik

US-Iran War Resumes Amid Negotiations: Key Problem Still the Nuclear Stalemate

​US pauses after resumed war. Iran widens conflict via proxies in Yemen/Iraq, but holds key in Bab al-Mandab. Wide US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #70 - Choke Points

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent evidence & mkt reaction to a second inflationary...

Rikki Malik

US pauses after resumed war. Iran widens conflict via proxies in Yemen/Iraq, but holds key in Bab al-Mandab. Wide US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues,...