European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.</li>
<li>Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.</li>
<li>Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.</li>
</ul>


Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.
Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.
Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.


Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is elevated vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the accretion trade unfolds.</li>
<li>As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, as opposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.</li>
<li>Expect near-term weakness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following Ibex’s disposal of its 28% stake in Pepcor earlier this week, Pepcor (PPH) will be upweighted in the closing auction today.</li>
<li>PPH’s free float will increase to 99.82% from 71.61%. Passive funds and hedgers will need to increase their exposure by between 37 and 47bps.</li>
<li>In addition, active managers looking to maintain their active positioning would need to buy PPH, failure to do so would result in an underweight of 39bps (assuming a Capped ALSI benchmark and an active weight of 0%).</li>
</ul>


Following Ibex’s disposal of its 28% stake in Pepcor earlier this week, Pepcor (PPH) will be upweighted in the closing auction today.
PPH’s free float will increase to 99.82% from 71.61%. Passive funds and hedgers will need to increase their exposure by between 37 and 47bps.
In addition, active managers looking to maintain their active positioning would need to buy PPH, failure to do so would result in an underweight of 39bps (assuming a Capped ALSI benchmark and an active weight of 0%).


JSE Indexation Research: PPH to Be Upweighted in Closing Auction Today, PPH Rebalance Yesterday

Northam Platinum Holdings  / Index Rebalance

<ul><li>JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction tomorrow.                              </li><li>NPH will enter the Top 40, with GLN falling out. </li><li>GLN will also fall out of the RESI 10, with NPH entering.</li></ul>

JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction tomorrow.                              NPH will enter the Top 40, with GLN falling out. GLN will also fall out of the RESI 10, with NPH entering.

FTSE/JSE June 2025 Rebalance: GLN to Fall Out of Top 40, NPH to Enter

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Swiggy is a business to commerce marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Swiggy is a business to commerce marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Swiggy IPO Lockup - US$7.9bn Lockup Release

South Africa

Naspers Limited operates in the technology industry. The Company invests in global internet companies across the world.

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Naspers (NPN SJ)

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

Prosus’s JET offer nears regulatory decision with a tight 1.1% spread. High probability of success offers 5.5% annualized return; downside risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

JSE Indexation Research: PPH to Be Upweighted in Closing Auction Today, PPH Rebalance Yesterday

Following Ibex’s disposal of its 28% stake in Pepcor earlier this week, Pepcor (PPH) will be upweighted in the closing auction today.

DMA

FTSE/JSE June 2025 Rebalance: GLN to Fall Out of Top 40, NPH to Enter

NPN & PRX top sells as shares in issue fall. BTI, CFR & AGL scrip moves offshore. JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction tomorrow.

DMA

Swiggy IPO Lockup - US$7.9bn Lockup Release

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

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