Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.</li>
<li>Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.</li>
<li>Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.</li>
</ul>


ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.
Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.
Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.


Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-aluminium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1770:1" rel="noopener">National Aluminium (NACL IN)</a> has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.</li>
<li>Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted "Maharatna" status by 2030.</li>
<li>This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.</li>
</ul>



National Aluminium (NACL IN) has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.
Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted "Maharatna" status by 2030.
This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.


The Beat Ideas: Nalco's ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>EBITDA in line with our estimate: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA at Rs 1,492 Cr (up 60%, but down 46% QoQ) stood in line with our estimate (19% miss against consensus).</li><li>The QoQ drop in EBITDA was expected as both LME Aluminium and Alumina prices and sales volume moderated over the strong base of Q4FY25.</li><li>Although Alumina and Aluminium prices were down by 16%/3% YoY in Q1FY26, EBITDA grew by 60% YoY, mainly due to higher Alumina sales volume at 304 kt (up 204% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EBITDA in line with our estimate: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA at Rs 1,492 Cr (up 60%, but down 46% QoQ) stood in line with our estimate (19% miss against consensus).The QoQ drop in EBITDA was expected as both LME Aluminium and Alumina prices and sales volume moderated over the strong base of Q4FY25.Although Alumina and Aluminium prices were down by 16%/3% YoY in Q1FY26, EBITDA grew by 60% YoY, mainly due to higher Alumina sales volume at 304 kt (up 204% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) - Largely Inline Q1...

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. </li>
<li>The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta</li>
<li>Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.</li>
</ul>


A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. 
The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta
Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.


Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

<ul>
<li>NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.</li>
<li>Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.</li>
<li>Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning. </li>
</ul>


NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.
Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.
Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning. 


NALCO (NACL IN): Record FY25 Profit; Alumina-Led Fall Likely Priced In, Execution Remains Key Risk

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Nalco's ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

National Aluminium (NACL IN) plans INR 30,000 crore capex to double smelting capacity and secure long-term power supply, aiming for "Maharatna"...

Sudarshan Bhandari

National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) - Largely Inline Q1...

EBITDA in line with our estimate: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA at Rs 1,492 Cr (up 60%, but down 46% QoQ) stood in line with our estimate (19% miss...

Axis Direct

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

NALCO (NACL IN): Record FY25 Profit; Alumina-Led Fall Likely Priced In, Execution Remains Key Risk

NALCO's earnings outlook for FY26 is impacted by delays in alumina expansion project, despite strong Q4 FY25 results and inexpensive valuations on...

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

​Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Nalco's ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

​National Aluminium (NACL IN) plans INR 30,000 crore capex to double smelting capacity and secure long-term power supply, aiming for "Maharatna"...

Sudarshan Bhandari

National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) - Largely Inline Q1...

EBITDA in line with our estimate: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA at Rs 1,492 Cr (up 60%, but down 46% QoQ) stood in line with our estimate (19% miss...

Axis Direct

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

​Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

NALCO (NACL IN): Record FY25 Profit; Alumina-Led Fall Likely Priced In, Execution Remains Key Risk

​NALCO's earnings outlook for FY26 is impacted by delays in alumina expansion project, despite strong Q4 FY25 results and inexpensive valuations on...

Rahul Jain

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

National Aluminium (NACL IN) plans INR 30,000 crore capex to double smelting capacity and secure long-term power supply, aiming for "Maharatna"...

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

NALCO's earnings outlook for FY26 is impacted by delays in alumina expansion project, despite strong Q4 FY25 results and inexpensive valuations on...