External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. </li><li>Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT jumped up by 5x/19x YoY/QoQ to Rs 595 Cr (35% EBIT margin vs. 9%/4% in Q2FY24/Q1FY25) led by a surge in Alumina prices (up 51%/18% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>The growth could have also led to higher Alumina sales in the quarter. Q1FY25 Alumina sales was impacted by logistical issues.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT jumped up by 5x/19x YoY/QoQ to Rs 595 Cr (35% EBIT margin vs. 9%/4% in Q2FY24/Q1FY25) led by a surge in Alumina prices (up 51%/18% YoY/QoQ).The growth could have also led to higher Alumina sales in the quarter. Q1FY25 Alumina sales was impacted by logistical issues.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

National Aluminium Company Ltd - Robust Q2; Alumina Long Position to Drive Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

<ul><li>Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.</li><li>EBITDA degrew by 16% QoQ and missed our/consensus estimate by 22%/18% respectively, despite LME Aluminium prices rising by 15% QoQ (up 11% YoY) to $2,525/t and coal prices remaining soft in the quarter.</li><li>This was due to lower revenue from the Chemical segment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.EBITDA degrew by 16% QoQ and missed our/consensus estimate by 22%/18% respectively, despite LME Aluminium prices rising by 15% QoQ (up 11% YoY) to $2,525/t and coal prices remaining soft in the quarter.This was due to lower revenue from the Chemical segment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco - Overall Miss Led by Weakness in the Chemical Segment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited / Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.</li>
<li>Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.
Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

<ul><li>Strong Q4FY24: Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 44%/43% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,108 Cr, beating the consensus and our estimates by 13%/6%, led by decline in RM, Power &amp; Fuel, and other expenses, partially offset by higher employee costs.</li><li>Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT grew by a robust 121%/143% YoY/QoQ to Rs 529 Cr, with EBIT margins jumping to 33% from 15% in Q4FY23 and 15.4% in Q3FY24.</li><li>Revenue from the Chemicals segment stood flat YoY and increased by 12% QoQ, (7% miss vs our estimate).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong Q4FY24: Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 44%/43% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,108 Cr, beating the consensus and our estimates by 13%/6%, led by decline in RM, Power &amp; Fuel, and other expenses, partially offset by higher employee costs.Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT grew by a robust 121%/143% YoY/QoQ to Rs 529 Cr, with EBIT margins jumping to 33% from 15% in Q4FY23 and 15.4% in Q3FY24.Revenue from the Chemicals segment stood flat YoY and increased by 12% QoQ, (7% miss vs our estimate).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco -Robust Q4; Beneficiary of Higher LME & Lower Power Costs

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

National Aluminium Company Ltd - Robust Q2; Alumina Long Position to Drive Growth

Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the...

Axis Direct

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Nalco - Overall Miss Led by Weakness in the Chemical Segment

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.

Axis Direct

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new adds...

Brian Freitas

Nalco -Robust Q4; Beneficiary of Higher LME & Lower Power Costs

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 44%/43% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,108 Cr, beating the consensus and our estimates by 13%/6%, led by decline in RM, Power...

Axis Direct

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