Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.</li>
<li>Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.</li>
</ul>


The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.
Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.


Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Asia is the focal region globally where nuclear power is growing significantly to meet its increasing demand for clean electricity. There are approximately 135 operable nuclear power reactors, with 35 under construction - around two-thirds of the reactors under construction worldwide. China is the clear leader in nuclear generation growth.
There were divergent responses to the Fukushima accident, leading some countries to reassess their long-term domestic energy policy, while others experienced a short-term pause, before continuing with long-term strategies, with few to no changes. 
The debate is ongoing whether nuclear power is a safe energy source for mitigating global climate change, or presents an unnecessary risk, given past disasters, coupled with the unavoidable by-product of radioactive waste. Additionally, renewable energy such as solar and wind has become increasingly competitive and sustainable.
For countries such as China, India, and South Korea, there remain solid economic reasons for the expansion of global nuclear power, and its role in lowering emissions from energy production.
The vast majority of nuclear power plants in Asia are operated by unlisted government entities; or in Japan, the bulk of reactors remain in shutdown mode after Fukushima.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58:1" rel="noopener">CGN Power Co Ltd H (1816 HK)</a> is one of the few listed nuclear pure-plays in Asia, and trades at undemanding multiples, together with an attractive ROE and yield.
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What's Original?
This insight presents a comprehensive view of the Asian nuclear energy industry, and its value chain
</div>

Asia is the focal region globally where nuclear power is growing significantly to meet its increasing demand for clean electricity. There are approximately 135 operable nuclear power reactors, with 35 under construction - around two-thirds of the reactors under construction worldwide. China is the clear leader in nuclear generation growth.
There were divergent responses to the Fukushima accident, leading some countries to reassess their long-term domestic energy policy, while others experienced a short-term pause, before continuing with long-term strategies, with few to no changes. 
The debate is ongoing whether nuclear power is a safe energy source for mitigating global climate change, or presents an unnecessary risk, given past disasters, coupled with the unavoidable by-product of radioactive waste. Additionally, renewable energy such as solar and wind has become increasingly competitive and sustainable.
For countries such as China, India, and South Korea, there remain solid economic reasons for the expansion of global nuclear power, and its role in lowering emissions from energy production.
The vast majority of nuclear power plants in Asia are operated by unlisted government entities; or in Japan, the bulk of reactors remain in shutdown mode after Fukushima.
CGN Power Co Ltd H (1816 HK) is one of the few listed nuclear pure-plays in Asia, and trades at undemanding multiples, together with an attractive ROE and yield.

What's Original?
This insight presents a comprehensive view of the Asian nuclear energy industry, and its value chain


Asian Nuclear Energy Industry: The Value Chain

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Hindustan Petroleum, National Aluminium, Oil &amp; Natural Gas, Vedanta, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, ICICI Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Hindustan Petroleum, National Aluminium, Oil &amp; Natural Gas, Vedanta, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, ICICI Bank.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Jun): Hindustan Petroleum, National Aluminium, Oil & Natural Gas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.
The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.
A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

<ul>
<li>There could be 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 74.6% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 180bn (US$1.9bn).</li>
<li>There is a huge sector mismatch with Industrials and Utilities stocks expected to net gain 4 spots each while Financials are expected to lose 9 index spots.</li>
</ul>


There could be 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 74.6% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 180bn (US$1.9bn).
There is a huge sector mismatch with Industrials and Utilities stocks expected to net gain 4 spots each while Financials are expected to lose 9 index spots.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 75% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Commodity prices remain in a secular bull market, and now even gold is joining the rally. This is bullish for global metals/mining stocks (precious...

Vermilion Research

Asian Nuclear Energy Industry: The Value Chain

China leads the world in nuclear generation growth. CGN Power appears undemanding at 7.8x PER and 1.4x PB, with a 10.6% ROE (vs. 9% for peers). A...

David Blennerhassett

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Jun): Hindustan Petroleum, National Aluminium, Oil & Natural Gas

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Hindustan Petroleum, National Aluminium, Oil & Natural Gas,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

The deletes have outperformed the adds by 4.7% since the announcement of the changes. The passives trade at the close today and those flows could...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 75% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 22 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 74.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 180bn (US$1.9bn). The...

Brian Freitas

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