External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NALCO reported a strong set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT beating ours and consensus estimates.</li><li>Revenue at Rs 3,347 Cr grew by 2%/10% YoY/QoQ (3% beat vs. our estimate).</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 773 Cr (up 68%/95% YoY/QoQ) a 39% and 59% beat against our and consensus led by lower RM (down 26%/10% YoY/QoQ), power &amp; fuel (down 23%/19% YoY/QoQ) and employee expenses (down 6%/3% YoY/QoQ). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NALCO reported a strong set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT beating ours and consensus estimates.Revenue at Rs 3,347 Cr grew by 2%/10% YoY/QoQ (3% beat vs. our estimate).EBITDA stood at Rs 773 Cr (up 68%/95% YoY/QoQ) a 39% and 59% beat against our and consensus led by lower RM (down 26%/10% YoY/QoQ), power &amp; fuel (down 23%/19% YoY/QoQ) and employee expenses (down 6%/3% YoY/QoQ). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco -Robust Q3FY24; Lower Input Costs Drive All Round Beat

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Volume growth: Capacity rising from 3 mtpa to 4 mtpa by early 2026 supports double-digit EPS growth.</li>
<li>Margin strength: &gt;50% gross margins and net-cash balance sheet provide resilience despite alumina cyclicality.</li>
<li>Valuation appeal: Trades at 7–8× FY25E P/E and ~5× EV/EBITDA, a discount to regional peers.</li>
</ul>


Volume growth: Capacity rising from 3 mtpa to 4 mtpa by early 2026 supports double-digit EPS growth.
Margin strength: &gt;50% gross margins and net-cash balance sheet provide resilience despite alumina cyclicality.
Valuation appeal: Trades at 7–8× FY25E P/E and ~5× EV/EBITDA, a discount to regional peers.


Nanshan Aluminium — A Southeast Asia Alumina Pure Play at a Discount

<ul><li>NALCO reported a weak set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missing ours and consensus estimates.</li><li>Revenue at Rs 3,043 Cr fell by 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 9%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q2FY24.</li><li>Revenue missed our/consensus estimate by 4%, most probably due to lower-than-expected Alumina external sales. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NALCO reported a weak set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missing ours and consensus estimates.Revenue at Rs 3,043 Cr fell by 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 9%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q2FY24.Revenue missed our/consensus estimate by 4%, most probably due to lower-than-expected Alumina external sales. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco - Weak Q2FY24; Higher Power & Fuel Costs Drive Miss

<ul><li>NALCO reported a weak set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missing our estimates.</li><li>Revenue at Rs 3,178 Cr fell by 16%/13% YoY/QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24.</li><li>Revenue missed our/consensus estimate by 6%/2% most probably due to lower-than-expected Alumina sales. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NALCO reported a weak set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missing our estimates.Revenue at Rs 3,178 Cr fell by 16%/13% YoY/QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24.Revenue missed our/consensus estimate by 6%/2% most probably due to lower-than-expected Alumina sales. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

Nalco -Robust Q3FY24; Lower Input Costs Drive All Round Beat

The company has declared its 2 nd interim dividend of Rs 2/share, bringing the total interim dividend to Rs 3/share for FY24.

Axis Direct

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Nanshan Aluminium — A Southeast Asia Alumina Pure Play at a Discount

Aluminum company poised for double-digit EPS growth with increased capacity, strong margins, and attractive valuation compared to peers.

Rahul Jain

Nalco - Weak Q2FY24; Higher Power & Fuel Costs Drive Miss

NALCO reported a weak set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missing ours and consensus estimates. Revenue at Rs 3,043 Cr fell by 13%/4% YoY/QoQ

Axis Direct

Nalco - Weak Q1FY24; Downgrade to HOLD

Revenue at Rs 3,178 Cr fell by 16%/13% YoY/QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24.

Axis Direct

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Nalco -Robust Q3FY24; Lower Input Costs Drive All Round Beat

The company has declared its 2 nd interim dividend of Rs 2/share, bringing the total interim dividend to Rs 3/share for FY24.

Axis Direct

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Nanshan Aluminium — A Southeast Asia Alumina Pure Play at a Discount

​Aluminum company poised for double-digit EPS growth with increased capacity, strong margins, and attractive valuation compared to peers.

Rahul Jain

Nalco - Weak Q2FY24; Higher Power & Fuel Costs Drive Miss

NALCO reported a weak set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missing ours and consensus estimates. Revenue at Rs 3,043 Cr fell by 13%/4% YoY/QoQ

Axis Direct

Nalco - Weak Q1FY24; Downgrade to HOLD

Revenue at Rs 3,178 Cr fell by 16%/13% YoY/QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24.

Axis Direct

Aluminum company poised for double-digit EPS growth with increased capacity, strong margins, and attractive valuation compared to peers.