Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia, BHP, Wesfarmers, CSL.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia, BHP, Wesfarmers, CSL.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia, BHP

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Aurizon, CSL, Bluescope Steel.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Aurizon, CSL, Bluescope Steel.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 30th): Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. </li>
<li>Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.</li>
<li>WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.</li>
</ul>


Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. 
Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.
WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.


Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

<ul>
<li>Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. </li>
<li>There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.</li>
<li>Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. </li>
</ul>


Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. 
There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.
Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. 


Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

Equity Bottom-Up

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NAB reported its 3Q24 results with slightly lower profit, but major divergence inside the figures </li>
<li>The bank shows a staggering decline in credit costs in 3Q24, which means the results were flattered</li>
<li>This is despite a very sharp rise in bad loans in major segments, corporate and residential mortgages, up around 50% YoY annualized in 3Q24</li>
</ul>


NAB reported its 3Q24 results with slightly lower profit, but major divergence inside the figures 
The bank shows a staggering decline in credit costs in 3Q24, which means the results were flattered
This is despite a very sharp rise in bad loans in major segments, corporate and residential mortgages, up around 50% YoY annualized in 3Q24


NAB - Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly

Australia

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

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National Australia Bank (NAB AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 30th): Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Loan growth flat lining for a long time in Australia, with highly negative growth rates for building approvals, and WBC and BEN showing weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

With NAB results and peers, it is worthwhile keeping in mind this HFD on insolvencies, which has been for some time, pointing to worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

NAB - Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly

NAB reported its 3Q24 results with profit down slightly, but the figure is exaggerated with sharply lower credit costs, despite much higher bad...

Daniel Tabbush

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