Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically</li>
<li>Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly</li>
<li>There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ</li>
</ul>


Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically
Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly
There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ


Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

<ul>
<li>ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp</li>
<li>ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover</li>
<li>Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ's rebuttal to the report </li>
</ul>


ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp
ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover
Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ's rebuttal to the report 


ANZ/Suncorp - Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

<ul>
<li>There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect</li>
<li>Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector</li>
<li>NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail</li>
</ul>


There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect
Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector
NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail


Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 10th August, published on the 14th August.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.4bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail". Net shorts increased A$3.7bn(!) week-on-week.
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pls-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">PLS Group (PLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 10th August, published on the 14th August.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.4bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail". Net shorts increased A$3.7bn(!) week-on-week.

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Lynas Corp (LYC AU), PLS Group (PLS AU), Evolution Mining (EVN AU), and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU). 



Aussie Shorts [10 Aug 2026]: Rio Tinto, Lynas, PLS Group, Evolution Mining, Genesis Minerals

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Among active Global equity funds, exposure to Banking stocks is at the lower end of the decade long range</li>
<li>Over the last 6-months, Banks experienced the largest drop in average fund weight of -0.4%, suffered fund outflows of $-1.98bn and had 40 more sellers than buyers over the period.</li>
<li>The failure of SVB Financial, First Republic and Signature Bank has effected sentiment in US Banks, but elsewhere we see strong momentum in Singaporean Banks, Indonesian Banks and Indian Banks.  </li>
</ul>


Among active Global equity funds, exposure to Banking stocks is at the lower end of the decade long range
Over the last 6-months, Banks experienced the largest drop in average fund weight of -0.4%, suffered fund outflows of $-1.98bn and had 40 more sellers than buyers over the period.
The failure of SVB Financial, First Republic and Signature Bank has effected sentiment in US Banks, but elsewhere we see strong momentum in Singaporean Banks, Indonesian Banks and Indian Banks.  


Australia

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

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National Australia Bank (NAB AU)

Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

High frequency data in Australia may be more valuable than many other regions, since banks only report on an interim basis. The data is not good,...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ/Suncorp - Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

Further delay by ACCC in its consideration for the ANZ takeover of Suncorp, appears to rest on Stark report, showing how there would be significant...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Australia insolvencies are surging, especially in construction, manufacturing, hotels & restaurants. Risk is higher credit costs and bad loans for...

Daniel Tabbush

Aussie Shorts [10 Aug 2026]: Rio Tinto, Lynas, PLS Group, Evolution Mining, Genesis Minerals

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.4bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail"....

David Blennerhassett

Global Banks: Positioning Deep Dive

Positioning in the Banking industry group among Global equity funds stalls after US Banking failures, but non-US sentiment is improving.

Steven Holden

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